Sunday, August 10, 2014

* Preparation: Must Know for the Week to Come; Must Know from Last Week

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Summary of Momentum
At the beginning of last week we saw momentum hit annual lows across the board, including perhaps the most important measure, which is the number of stock trading below their 200-day moving average.At the end of last week, every measure of momentum had ticked up.

We are now still in official bear territory for market internals.

What Could Move Markets this Week
* ISIS and US involvement in Iraq

"We don’t know how ISIS is going to respond. That is an organization 
that’s been underestimated from the get go." - Aaron Task

* Russia, Putin and the Ukraine
* Hamas and Israel

* Junk Bonds

Michael Santoli does point out that this may be a lagging rather than a leading indicator; the last time we saw much outflow was the end of the 2011 sell-off.

* Consumer Economic Numbers (economic calendar provided below)
* Consumer Earnings

Highly recommended view (~4 minutes) ISIS, Walmart and junk bonds: What to watch next week



Last Week: Must Know
All Stock Indices: Up


Data provided, Yahoo! Finance, Charles Schwab optionsXpress

We have yet to see a follow through of back-to-back weeks of all indices showing negative returns and last week broke the "one-week" trend again.  Note that the Russell 2000, which ad been the hardest hit of all the indices, showed the largest positive return.

But the issue is still momentum.

* As of Friday: 34% of stocks are now trading above their 50-day MA
* As of five-weeks ago: 79% of stocks were trading above their 50-day MA (annual low)

We;ll get to the 200-day MA stats and chart a bit later.

Chart of the Week: Risk is Back

Provided by Barchart.com

* The market faced a quiet period where 62 consecutive trading days did not yield a 1% move (up or down).

* Since that period ended (7-17-2014), there have been four such moves in just seventeen trading days.

* In those 17 days, daily average (absolute) market volatility has increased 60.5%.

Last Week: Phenomena We Must Know
8-8-2014
* Tekmira Pharma (TKMR) - What's Really Going On in this Ebola Epidemic and This Stock

8-7-2014
* Plug Power (PLUG) - Earnings Preview; Financials Review. Risk Reality. Six Factual Charts.

8-6-2014
* Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Risk Mis-priced Again; Stock Booms on New Model. And Now, What?

8-5-2014
* Stratasys (SSYS) - Earnings Preview: A Risk Exists... The Stock Blew it Out

Last Week: Stats Must Know
Momentum collapsed two weeks ago,but did show a recovery for the first time in a while.


Provided by BarChart.com

Compare the numbers from 'last week' to 'today.' Everything looks is 'better' in a week, but...

* As of Friday: 37% of stocks are now trading above their 20-day MA
* As of five-weeks ago: 75% of stocks were trading above their 20-day MA

* As of Friday: 34% of stocks are now trading above their 50-day MA
* As of five-weeks ago: 79% of stocks were trading above their 50-day MA (annual low)

But this is the big one...

* As of Friday: 48% of stocks are now trading above their 200-day MA
* As of five-weeks ago: 70% of stocks were trading above their 200-day MA (annual low) 

Here's the 200-day MA that I focus on.

Provided by BarChart.com

In four weeks it had gone from an intra-day high of ~70% to 46% which had obliterated a new low.Last week we saw a glimmer of hope, with that number bow sitting at 48%.  I do note that this is the second consecutive week that the number is below 50%.

Last Week: Must Know Headlines:
* Stocks end with strong gains, see weekly gains as Ukraine fears fade: Live blog recap

* Obama Signals Likely Long U.S. Military Involvement in Iraq

* Bank of America Near $16 Billion to $17 Billion Settlement

* Sen. Wyden: US tax code a "rotting economic carcass"

This Week: Must Know
This week has some economic data and the tail-end of earnings season. I use optionsXpress (aka Charles Schwab) for all of this data, so if you want to find it yourself, just click on the pic below.

Below you will find all that we need to prepare for the week to come. All data and images for this report are provided by Charles Schwab optionsXpress.

This Week: Economic Calendar
This week we can focus on the consumer, both with respect to economic data and, as we will see, in earnings.Wednesday is a big day.




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Update 8-13-2014 After Market Close

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Partial List of Noteworthy Earnings This Week


WMT is an interesting one, the largest employer in the United States has gone on the record, stating that if there's a rebound in the economy, they aren't seeing it.  If consumers are going from WMT to Macy's, we'll see, as M also has earnings this week.


This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






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