Monday, April 29, 2013

Actavis (ACT) - Takeover Rumors Start the Fever; Vol Explodes 100%; Stock Reaches Annual High.


ACT is trading $106.48, up 5.5% with IV30™ up 95.3%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Actavis Inc., formerly Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc., is an integrated global pharmaceutical company engaged in the development, manufacturing, marketing, sale and distribution of generic and brand pharmaceutical products.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols.

What’s interesting is that this firm has earnings due out on 5-2-2013 BMO, but the vol explosion and price move have nothing to do with the earnings vol event. This is takeover fever… in a major way. The prior annual high in IV30™ was 31% -- as I’m writing this article the implied is trading just under 42%, now. The prior 52 wk high in stock price was ~$101, and the stock is trading well above that level right now as well.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The one-year ACT Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, even before today, we can see a nice appreciation over the last year. One year ago this was a $75.36 stock, so it’s up a lot even before the pop today. I also note the HV180™ (pink curve on the bottom portion of the chart) – that represents the realized historical volatility of the stock over the last 180 trading days, or about nine months. The stock moves at ~20% annualized clip – quite low for a pharma company – although this is a generic pharma company so, it’s not quite as spicy as the normal guys in this industry.

Of course, the real stock story is the pop today on news that over the weekend there may have been discussions about a takeover from Valeant Pharmaceuticals. Couple that with a raised price target from an analyst and you get… today. My source for this news snippet was Investors.com.

Let’s turn to the one-year IV30™ chart to see the incredible vol rise today.



That spike is just vertical. Rumor = 100% pop in IV30™; that’s the equation we’re looking at today. Wow…

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 42.08% in May and 32.32% in Jun. That elevated vol in May is due both to earnings and this takeover news. I do note the rise in vol for Jun and Aug as well (look at the little green numbers in parenthesis under the vol number). Those vol pops are not earnings related, but rather takeover related.

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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Netflix (NFLX) - Vol Nears Multi-Year Lows as Stock Explodes; Hollywood Take Note -- Another Shot Across Major Distributor’s Bows


NFLX is trading $216.70, down small with IV30™ down 2.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



Netflix, Inc. (Netflix), incorporated on August 29, 1997, is an Internet subscription service streaming television shows and movies. The Company’s subscribers can watch unlimited television shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers and mobile devices, and in the United States, subscribers can also receive digital versatile discs (DVDs) delivered to their homes.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for depressed vols. After doing a number of articles on elevated vol, I find this a very compelling story on depressed vol given the incredibly high realized vol of late.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 20
IV30™ Percentile LTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The two-year NFLX Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).




We can see the wild ride in NFLX stock over the last two-years, but really it’s been a five-year ride. A lot of respect has to be levied at the feet of NFLX management for doing such a stellar job of pulling the firm out of what looked to be a hopeless situation just a few months ago. And, on a personal note (and as a professional screenwriter), “House of Cards” was absolutely brilliantly done – an in house NFLX production which has fired a shot back across the bow of the largest content distributors in Hollywood (Sony, Disney, Paramount, Warner Bros, Lions Gate, Fox, NBCUniversal).

NFLX has taken on the industry big boys… again…

I wonder if in a few years, the next time we discuss the most powerful distributors in Hollywood, if NFLX is on the list... At the top...

If we look at the last two earnings cycles (blue “E” icons), we can see the abrupt gaps up on the news – when NFLX reported better than expected results (by a lot).

But, this is a vol note, so let’s look to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation.



We can see the implied as of today is just above an annual low and quite close to multi-year lows. The vol crush off of earnings is normal and expected. What I do find odd, in this case specifically, is how low the implied has gone after a 25% move up on earnings just a few days ago. Looking to the vol comps, we can see quite a divergence between the implied (forward looking vol) and historical vols.

IV30™: 46%
HV10™: 118% (all earnings based)
Hv20™: 91 (mostly earnings based)
HV30™: 78% (somewhat earnings based)
HV90™: 83%

It’s that HV90™ number that really catches my eye. HV90™ is the realized volatility over the last 90 trading days (which is more than four months). So, the stock has moved at an 83% annual clip over the last four months, but the IV30™ (the option market’s forward looking projection for the next 30 days) is considerably lower. Hmmm….

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 46.38% in May and 44.95% in June. Both feel low… right?

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Under Armour (UA) - Vol Nears Multi-year Lows; Really?


UA is trading $55.38, up 0.7% with IV30™ down 0.5%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Under Armour, Inc. (Under Armour) is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company’s products are sold worldwide and are worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields worldwide.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for depressed vols. This mote is in the opposite vein as some of my prior posts where I was seeing stocks breaching multi-year highs in vol into earnings even as the VIX is at very low levels relative to the last four years. Basically, it's time for a different flavor -- so here we go.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 20
IV30™ Percentile LTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The two-year UA Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see a nice price appreciation. This was a ~$35 stock two-years ago and is now trading early 60% higher. Well done management. But, this is a vol note, so let's look at the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation.



I have drawn in that horizontal yellow line to clearly mark how low vol is now relative to the last two years. It's not quite at new lows,but it's headed there. Specifically, it's in the 2nd percentile. I note how low the vol is in UA, now that earnings have come and gone, in a world where nothing feels "low risk."

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 30.15%, 31.005 and 30.88% for May, Jun and Jul, respectively. Note the consistency of the vols -- i.e. they're all low relative to the last two years. I'm not making a prediction, I'm just sayin', multi-year low in vols priced through July (and pretty close in Oct)... I dunno....

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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

AAPL - Earnings Preview – Some Things You May Know, and Some You Do Not


AAPL is trading $405.70, up 1.8% with IV30™ up 1.8%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Apple Inc. (Apple) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players, and sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications.

In case you hadn’t heard, AAPL is releasing earnings today, AMC.

I’m, going to show you some things that I see, that perhaps you haven’t – and they matter, a lot.

First, I do remind of the recent four articles I posted on AAPL. I think the titles summarize the articles fairly well. Feel free to click the links to read ‘em.

4-18-2013
Apple (AAPL) - This Just Isn't the Company it Used to Be... And it Never Will Be Again."

1-23-2013
Apple (AAPL) - "Just the Facts Ma'am" -- Well, that Supports the Opinion: "Everything has Changed. The Old AAPL is No More."

12-10-2012
AAPL - Everything has Changed. The Old AAPL is No More. The New AAPL is a Riskier Entity and the Market Doesn't Know What that Means Yet

12-5-2012
Apple (AAPL) - Have We Moved into a Totally New Volatility Paradigm for This Company? Has Everything Changed?

On to today… First, I have included the two-year AAPL Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see AAPL’s incredible fall from the highs of over $700 just ~seven months ago. The firm is down over 40% from those highs or over $200 billion in market cap. I saw a great stat that put the number in context – AAPL has lost the market cap of Google over the last seven months.

OK, but who didn’t know that?... It’s the vol where the picture is drawn and the conclusion is made. Let’s turn to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation.



I have circled the last seven earnings cycles (plus the one today). Though the pattern is rough, recently it has essentially seen the implied rising to higher levels with each earnings cycle. The option market reflects greater risk in AAPL for each earnings cycle. A fair question is, “is this warranted?”

Here is the resounding yes. Below I have included three charts.

(1) The HV360™ for AAPL vs the HV360 for SPY. HV360 is the historical (realized) volatility of the stock over the last 360 trading days – which is about a 1.5 year average (there are 252 trading days a year).
(2) Same chart, but using HV180™ (~9 month average)
(3) Same chart, but using HV120™ (~half a year average)

You may wonder, “why, Ophir, did you put three charts with three different historical vol measures?” The answer is, because I’m not cherry picking – it’s consistent from a six-month moving average to 1.5 year moving average. This is a real and tangible (and large) risk divergence from the market.

For all the charts, the yellow curve represents the SPY (S&P 500).

HV360™


HV180™


HV120™


We can see for all three time-periods, that as the market realized vol has been declining abruptly (the yellow curve) AAPL’s realized vol has been increasing and diverging immensely from the market. In English, AAPL has become more and more risky, while the market has become less and less risky.

It’s important to understand the context of the rising implied vols in AAPL into earnings. These implieds are rising (from earnings to earnings) while the market is less and less risky. It’s also interesting to see that the implieds (future looking risk) in AAPL are rising as the historical vols (realized vols) are also rising.

So what?...

AAPL has become remarkably more risky in the last two years relative to the overall market. It has gone from the leader in worldwide technology to a laggard in certain areas that they in fact invented (aka iOS as one example). The higher implied vols reflect that risk and they are justified with the massive divergence in the historical (realized vols).

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



We can see the ATM straddle ($405 strike) in the weeklies is pricing in a ~$30 move off of the report (one standard deviation) and a $60 move within two-standard deviations.

Nobody really knows how the market will respond. It feels like AAPL might even rebound big if they can squeeze out any good news (which they very well may). But this is not the same company they used to be. Their leader is no longer with us. And a 40% drop in the long-term is not necessarily the limit to the downside.

As for tomorrow’s reaction to today’s news (earnings), I’d say watch for over optimism and over pessimism. In other words, watch for a big move off of little news, and an even bigger move off of big news. Long-term – this is a risky stock that has diverged so violently from the rest of the market that it must be considered a different entity than it once was.

Caution to all sides and all trades in this one. Not just today, but for the next… forever…

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This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Monday, April 22, 2013

Millennial Media (MM) - Vol Explodes into Multi-year High Territory; Stock Down 70% in Two-Years with Earnings Out Soon


MM is trading $6.21, down 3.0% with IV30™ down 0.8%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Millennial Media, Inc. (Millennial Media) is a mobile advertising platform company. Millennial Media technology, tools and services help developers maximize their advertising revenue. The Company’s technology and data platform, known as MYDAS, determines in real-time which ad to deliver.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols. This is a very compelling vol story where the implied is now trading fantastically above multi-year highs with earnings still quite some time away.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated to its own annual history (at least in the 80th percentile). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), and I want a minimum vol level so I don't pick up any boring ETF’s (or whatever). The stock price requirement helps me identify names that have enough strike prices to trade or spread.

The two-year MM Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see an abrupt loss of shareholder value – this was an $18.66 stock two-years ago and is now trading at about a 70% discount to that. I also note the huge gap down off of earnings on 2-20-2013 when the stock dropped from $14.33 to $8.95 in a single day.

But, this is a vol note, so let’s turn to the two-year IV30™ chart, below in isolation.



Here’s the story. While MM has earnings due out on 5-8-2013, the vol is already way into multi-year high territory. Given that earnings are still three weeks away, I expect that vol number to rise quite a bit more, unless the vol is rising due to an event outside of earnings. The blue “E” icons denote earnings dates, and we can see very clearly how much higher the vol is today than in prior earnings cycles.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see May vol is priced to 104.05% while Jun is priced to 85.33%. That vol diff of course is due to earnings. This is a very compelling vol story where the implied is now trading fantastically above multi-year highs with earnings still quite some time away. The last earnings release and really the performance of the stock over the last two-years give reason for the elevated vol. But should it be this elevated?... I dunno, I guess we’ll see…

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Friday, April 19, 2013

Overstock.com (OSTK) - Stock Rips for Second Day; But this Time, Vol Pops; Takeover Spec May Be the Culprit?


OSTK is trading $18.27, up 16.4% with IV30™ up 19.6%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Overstock.com, Inc. (Overstock) is an online retailer offering discount brand name, non-brand name and closeout merchandise, including bed-and-bath goods, home decor, kitchenware, furniture, watches and jewelry, apparel, electronics and computers, sporting goods, and designer accessories, among other products.

This is a vol and stock note on a company that was trading at $11.46 two days ago and is now 60% higher off of earnings (sort of). Let's take a peak at a news snippet from yesterday and then get into the option and vol "stuff."

---
What: Shares of Overstock.com were going through the roof today, climbing as much as 36% after thrashing earnings estimates in its first-quarter report.

So what: The online retailer, which has struggled to turn a profit against the likes of Amazon.com, posted net income of $0.32 a share in the quarter, up from $0.12 a year ago, and well ahead of analyst estimates at $0.13. Revenue also flew past expectations of $282.3 million, climbing 19%, to $312 million. Gross margin improved by 80 basis points, to 18.9%, and nearly all the revenue gains came from fulfillment partner relationships and growth in order size. Management did not provide comment in the press release.

Source: The Motley Fool via Yahoo! Finance; Overstock.com Shares Jump on Strong Earnings, written by Jeremy Bowman.
---

What's interesting here is that OSTK popped from $11.46 to $15.70 off of earnings and the implied dropped from 65.99% to 47.66% (which is normal). What's a little "less normal" is that the stock is up an additional 16.4% today and IV30™ is now up nearly 20% to 57%.

Let's turn to the two-year Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see two phenomena:

(1) The stock is now at a multi-year high and has popped on two consecutive days.
(2) The stock does have a tendency to gap off of earnings --check out the moves in stock price with the blue "E" icon (denoting earnings).

Let's turn to a one-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



We can see the dip in vol when earnings came out on the morning (BMO) of 4-18-2013. But we can also see the rise in the implied today. This is an odd one -- the news is out (and it's good), the stock had reacted, the vol dropped... OK, that's called a good earnings report. But then today, the stock gapped again, and the vol rose. There may have been some analyst upgrades, but, that's kinda irrelevant after a firm posts the earnings (no offense intended). Something else is going on...

I have included the Skew Tab, below.



The red curve represents May vol and the yellow curve represents Jun. I note the upward sloping OTM call portion of the May (red curve) skew. This upward slope is not "normal" in that OTM calls are normally priced below ATM options. Further, it's unusual for OSTK, which just a month ago showed a downward sloping OTM call skew (which is normal). I gotta say, this second day stock pop and skew shift kinda feels like takeover spec. Founded or unfounded, it just does...

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.



Across the top we can see that May vol is priced to 56.51% while Jun is priced to 52.28%. But, look at the OTM call vol difference. The May/Jun 22.5 call spread shows 7.5 vol point diff (compared to a 4 point vol diff for the ATM calendar spread). Again, this feels like takeover spec pricing -- which often (usually) turns out to be nothing. But sometimes... it doesn't...

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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Apple (AAPL) - This Just Isn't the Company it Used to Be... And it Never Will Be Again.


AAPLis trading $390.50, down 3.0% with IV30™ up 1.6%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Apple Inc. (Apple) designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players, and sells a variety of related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications.

The stock price today is an annual low and the implied is an annual high. Earnings are due out on 4-23-2013. I have seen a lot written and heard a lot spoken about AAPL by very reasonable and intelligent people. There's just one thing... I think most of them are wrong (which may very well make me the fool at the poker table).

I wrote a few articles on APPL between early Dec of last year and late Jan of this year when the stock was trading in $530 range. You can read those posts here, but really the article titles and the recap I will provide below may make visiting the old posts unnecessary.


1-23-2013
Apple (AAPL) - "Just the Facts Ma'am" -- Well, that Supports the Opinion: "Everything has Changed. The Old AAPL is No More."

12-5-2012
Apple (AAPL) - Have We Moved into a Totally New Volatility Paradigm for This Company? Has Everything Changed?

12-10-2012
AAPL - Everything has Changed. The Old AAPL is No More. The New AAPL is a Riskier Entity and the Market Doesn't Know What that Means Yet

Here's a recap of those posts which I still hold to be true, IMHO. Then I will go into the current situation and specifically demonstrate why I believe the Dec articles are still accurate. This really isn't a chest pounding roar of "how I was right," it's just what I see in the option market, for whatever that's worth (if anything).

---
1-23-2013

In my opinion, AAPL is a completely different entity than it was prior to Mr. Jobs' passing. I think AAPL is MSFT -- not yet, but soon... A company with disruptive technology unafraid to use less than the most ethical approaches to dominate markets, but this is America, and there are competitors, and eventually, someone else has the boy (or girl) genius with the next big ideas. Gates is done breaking the barriers of new ideas and technology. Jobs is too (absolutely all due respect). Remember when MSFT had a market cap of $600 billion?

On the vol side we can see that the implied has been rising into the event, but in sort of empirical yet circumstantial evidence of my prior hypothesis that AAPL is in fact a totally different entity than it was a year ago (or whatever), we can see the implied is trading higher than the last eight earnings announcements. Note the blue "E" icon on the stock chart indicating earnings.

Last eight earnings announcements (IV30™):
Today: 42.27%
12-25-2012: 36.79%
7-24-212: 34.99%
4-24-2012: 40.43%
1-24-2012: 32.35%
10-18-2011: 37.58%
7-18-2011: 32.06%
4-20-2011: 27.51%

So, in English, the options are reflecting greater risk now into this earnings announcement than in the prior two years (eight earnings reports). Again, circumstantial evidence of my hypothesis.
---

---
12-5-2012
This is a vol and stock note on the largest company in the world. I see a potential paradigm shift in the way the option market reflects risk in APPL -- and the shift is not trivial. I'll even call on your knowledge of Econ 101 from your college days.

In terms of a six-month return the stock has gone from $562.83 (6-5-2012) to now just under $550 for a modest 2.4% decline. Of course, the focus has been over the last 2.5 months -- AAPL hit an all-time high of $705.07 on 9-21-2012 and since then (as of this writing) is down over 22%. Note the free-fall from the all-time high to the low on 11-15-2012. The 52 wk range in APPL is [374.36, $705.07].

On the vol side, we can see recent rise in the implied.

But, here's what really caught my eye. The most recent closing low in stock price was on 11-15-2012 when AAPL closed at $525.62. At that time, the IV30™ was rising and hit 32.55%. Shortly thereafter, we can see the stock rise again, only to now start another downward trend. But, with the stock $20 lower then than it is today and in what for all intents and purposes was an absolute free fall from an all-time high (see the chart again), the implied only hit 32.55% on 11-15-2012.

But now, with the stock having already reversed the straight down move from the all-time high, and now headed on a new downward trajectory (after a small recovery), the vol has expanded (increased) significantly more to over 36%. So we see a $20 higher stock price now, with a free fall having ended, yet the implied is now higher than it was during the free fall. In English, the risk reflected by the option market has shifted -- it's higher.

Vol can behave much like demand (in fact, vol is demand for protection (puts) or speculation (calls)), where there can be an increase in quantity demanded (that's moving on the same demand curve to the right) and an increase in demand (which is a totally new demand curve drawn above the prior one). I've included a contrived picture of some "widget" demonstrating the difference in an increase in quantity demanded (moving from one red dot to the other) and an increase in demand (moving from blue Demand curve D to red Demand curve D'), below.



IMHO, AAPL is seeing a new demand curve (i.e. vol) -- we're no longer moving on the same vol curve and have moved to a new (higher) one. Like the difference between an increase in quantity demanded and an increase in demand, AAPL is showing a brand new risk curve -- a new paradigm if you will -- and it reflects higher risk.

This will be an interesting one to watch. If the hypothesis is correct, AAPL will be at elevated vol levels relative to the past in all situations (going up, standing still and going down). Those situations could (should) include earnings.
---

---
12-10-2012
The main contention in that [12-5-2012] article was that I saw a potential paradigm shift in the way the option market reflected risk in APPL. The article today will focus on the same topic -- but with empirical evidence not from the implied volatility side (forward looking), but from the historical realized volatility side (backward looking).


Now to the historical vol measures.  First, I have included the HV180™ chart and below that the HV360™ chart for AAPL over two-years. Note that HV is measured in trading days (not calendar days like implied vol), so HV180™ represents an average of ~9 months of data and HV360™ represents an average of ~18 months of data. So, in English, these are long-term trends not affected by short lived stock volatility.

AAPL HV180™


AAPL HV360™


I've drawn that yellow horizontal line to make it easier to see the high. What we can see here is that AAPL is now at multi-year highs for the very long-term HV180™ and HV360™ measures.

A fair question to ask, is, "how does this compare to the broader market?" Of course, the rationale being, if AAPL is mirroring the overall market, then this is not a firm specific trend, it's a coincidental data point.

Below I have included the same two charts, but have added the long-term HV for SPY as well.

AAPL HV180™ vs SPY HV180™


AAPL HV360™ vs SPY HV360™


I've highlighted the growing vol difference for both measures. The long-term HV measures for AAPL are rising as the SPY long-term HV measures are flattening. It bears repeating that the charts we're looking at here comprise of 9 months and 18 months of closing stock price data -- these are not averages that move easily with the blowing of the wind. These are very long-term measures for the largest company in the world.

The bottom line, in my opinion, whether it's b/c of the loss of Steve jobs, or a variety of other technology specific reasons (or all combined), AAPL is no longer the AAPL we once knew. The implied volatility (option market forward looking measures) bear this out, and the empirical historical stock movement bears it out as well.

The old AAPL is no more. And new AAPL is a riskier entity -- so says the option market and so says the empirical historical long-term stock returns.

This is a different company -- and the market doesn't know what that means yet.
---

So that's the recap, and now here is what I see today.

Let's start with the one-year Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see the stock has fallen 45% from its all-time high and ~25% since the Dec articles. The stock is now at an annual low and has made consecutive annual lows for the last several trading sessions.

Let's turn to the vol side, where I re-iterate my belief that the old AAPL is no more...



I have highlighted in yellow the IV30™ for the last four earnings cycles and the level as of today. The implied is trading higher than all prior four earnings cycles and is still a few days away from the next earnings release. In fact, though it is not pictured here, the vol is higher than prior five earnings cycles. In English, the vol should continue to climb into that 4-23-2013 date.

So, I see continued annual highs in vol every trading day moving forward until the earnings release barring any reports from the firm or any research firms which sort of break the "silence" of news. But, what about the overall market?

The VIX is sitting at 17.81% today. Here is the VIX on the date of the prior five earnings cycles for AAPL:

1-24-2012: 18.91%
4-24-2012: 18.10%
7-24-2012: 20.47%
10-25-2012: 18.12%
1-23-2013: 12.46%

So, with the exception of last Jan's earnings release, the market vol (VIX) has been higher than the current level while at the same time AAPL's implied into earnings has been rising. So VIX was lower, but APPL vol was higher.

In my opinion, AAPL simply is becoming Microsoft. A massively successful, free-cash flow machine that in many respects is a technology laggard rather than leader. When Bill Gates stepped aside as CEO, MSFT had its issues. With the passing of Steve Jobs, AAPL has its issues too. But the evidence reflects the same conclusions as before with one exception.

Last time I said:
"The old AAPL is no more. And new AAPL is a riskier entity -- so says the option market and so says the empirical historical long-term stock returns.

This is a different company -- and the market doesn't know what that means yet."

Now I say:

This is a different company -- and the market DOES know what that means. That's why it has lost more than $200 billion in market capitalization and continues to breach new highs in volatility even with a lower VIX.

There will be ebbs and flows and certainly AAPL may be due for a bounce -- earnings could be awesome... but this isn't the company it used to be... it just isn't... and it never will be again.

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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Cardinal Health (CAH) - Vol Breaches Annual High in Explosive Trend; Earnings, Credit Watch and Maybe Something Else?


CAH is trading $42.85, down 0.4% with IV30™ up 0.3%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Cardinal Health, Inc. is a healthcare services company providing products and services that help pharmacies, hospitals, surgery centers, physician offices and other healthcare providers.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols. The phenomenon I’m following in this name is that the implied has hit an annual high yet earnings are still several weeks away. Or, In English, the vol has breached a new high and is likely to continue to do so every day for the next three weeks unless there’s “something else” due before earnings.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 25
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated to its own annual history (at least in the 80th percentile). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), and I want a minimum vol level so I don't pick up any boring ETF’s (or whatever). The stock price requirement helps me identify names that have enough strike prices to trade or spread.

The one-year CAH Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see a sustained period of price appreciation broken by an abrupt gap down on 3-19-2012. The news driving that move stemmed from the revelation that CAH had lost its contract with Walgreens which then turned into a credit review from Moody’s. Now that sounds like a risky event, but note where the IV30™ was at the time (the red-line in the bottom portion of that chart above).

And today… vol as continued its upward march. Let’s turn to a one-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



Check out that rise in the implied – quite abrupt. Further, check out the vol levels in the prior earnings releases (the blue “E” icon). We can see how much higher IV30™ is right now than it was for any other earnings release and we’re still several weeks away from that volatility event. It feels like there is another event that is pushing the vol – one that may be due out before earnings. Either that, or there is a great deal of trepidation about the earnings call given the Walgreens news.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the vols by month are 19.32% for Apr and 27.58% for May. In English, the “event,” whether it’s earnings or something else, is coming after Apr expiry... or so reflects the option market.


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Monday, April 15, 2013

Gold Panic is Real; ls China Falling into a Deflationary Vortex -- has the Chinese Apocalypse Started? Really?...


This is a follow up the the post written on 7-12-2012. You can read that article here (but I'll re-cap below, so skip it...):
Has the Chinese Apocalypse Started? Is China on the Cusp of a Deflationary Vortex?

Six days after that (7-18-2012) I wrote this article:
Is China Collapsing into a Fraud Epidemic... Just Like the US?

And, on 9-29-2011, I wrote this article as a preamble:
Is China A State Backed Accounting Fraud Epidemic?

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Before we dig into that last post(s) (since I know you guys want a re-cap rather than to read the whole thing again -- and I don't blame you), I'm going to start with the news in the last week, today and then a re-cap of the past.

First for the last week, we can see a panic (yes, it is a panic) in gold prices. Just looking at GLD (the SPDR for Gold Shares), we can see that the IV30™ has risen from ~12% on Tuesday of last week to now ~ 31% today. I've included the two LIVEVOL® Pro Summaries below.

4-15-2013


4-9-2013


Not only is the IV30™ up 57.5% today and the price down 8.0%, but over the last six calendar days the implied is up 152% and the price is down 13.6%. The price is now well into multi-year low territory. I have included the two-year GLD stock chart below and the one-year IV30™ chart below that.

GLD Price


GLD Vol


And there you have it... a panic... But this is an article about China, right? Yes... it is... And that's why commodity prices are collapsing and the risk reflected in them is behaving not like a risk adjustment, but rather unbridled fear.

The news out of China today was this:

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China’s GDP grew at a 7.7% annual rate in the first quarter--less than the 8% economists had forecast--and the news sent gold and global markets tumbling. China's Q1 GDP is below the 7.9% growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.

The disappointing Chinese GDP report, viewed in the context of slow growth in the U.S., recession in Europe and near zero growth in Japan, is fueling fears that the global recovery is in danger, says The Daily Ticker’s Aaron Task.

It’s also re-igniting concerns about overbuilding in China’s real estate market.

“If the economy is growing only at 7.7% and they’ve built these stockpiles of unneeded stuff, then you could have demand for commodities collapse and the economy could collapse as a result of that,” says The Daily Ticker’s Henry Blodget.

Source: Yahoo! Finance; Commodities, Stocks Drop on China GDP Report; Even Bird Flu Has Investors Worried
---

In the article I posted on 7-12-2012, there were some trends that seemed like they could be... scary... Here's a recap:

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Let's start with premise in Dec and some snippets and bullet points to make it flow quickly. The source for this information comes from an interview with Gordan Chang on Yahoo!. You can listen to that interview here:
The Wheels Are Coming Off China’s Economy: Gordon Chang

Dec 20, 2011
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Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China" and a columnist at Forbes.com, has been sounding the alarm bells about China for years and backs up his prognosis with recent government data:

-electricity consumption is flat
-car sales - a bellwether for consumption - are flat
-property prices are collapsing - even in cities like Shanghai and Beijing
-industrial orders are down - especially those relating to the domestic economy"


Point #1: It's not inflation to fear, but deflation
The Chinese government (and the world at large) has been vigilant if not obsessive about China’s rate of inflation. Most of the focus has been on keeping it from going too high as elevated inflation would prevent them from continually flooding the economy with money. But, the numbers reported by the Chinese government state that inflation fell from 5.5% in October down to 4.2% in November. Good right? Not quite. Chang claims that inflation dropping is a problem if it’s too fast – and he’s right. If those numbers are accurate – 1.3% in a month is almost preposterous. If repeated, that’s not a slowdown – that really is a collapse.

Point #2: Property values are plummeting
What does Mr. Chang mean by collapsing property values? According to him, property values fell by 30% in Shanghai and Beijing in the month of October, alone.

Point #3: Chinese provinces are in trouble -- pumping money in won't work
China’s fix (actually the entire world’s fix) for a potentially fledgling economy has been to pump money into the economy (see the US and Eurozone). But, there’s a problem with that now.

Gordon says China cannot pump more money into the system to stimulate growth because of "questionable bank loans" and the high number of local Chinese provinces in debt.

Point #4: They’ve already built their ghost cities
Chang drops a bomb with a statistic on Chinese M2. He claims that China’s M2 at the end of Nov was 34% larger than the United States’ even though the US economy is more than twice the size of China’s. In other words, there is money and liquidity – some could say, a glut of liquidity. In English, the liquidity that’s present isn’t getting used so adding more money won’t do anything. As Chang puts it, "They’ve already built their ghost cities."

There are several factors contributing to China's slowdown, and Europe certainly plays a big factor. Europe is China's largest trading partner and Chinese export orders in November dropped sharply from October, rising 13.8% last month from 15.9% in October. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, China's labor costs are no longer considered "cheap" as fewer migrant workers choose factory jobs, thus "pushing up labor costs."

"We'll see more obvious signs of deterioration in the Chinese economy over the next six months," says Chang.
---

Let's fast forward to the present [NB: this was 7-12-2012]. The two sources I make most use of are:
1. The last thing the world needs now is a deflationary shock from China. Source: The Telegraph, written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

2. China’s ‘5 apocalypses’ signal global recession. Source: Marketwatch, written by Paul B. Farrell

I'll source these throughout the article by referring to the source number (i.e. #1 or #2).

Here are the arguments that the stern warning in December was right:

Remember point #1 from Chang: It's not inflation to fear, but deflation
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Source: #1
China is on the cusp of a deflationary vortex.

This was signaled late last year by the sharpest contraction in the (real) M1 money supply since modern records began. The hard data is now confirming the warnings.

(I've included a 5 year chart of Chinese M1; Source: Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CNMS1YOY:IND/chart))

China Monthly Money Supply ( 5years)


Consumer prices have been falling for the last three months, producer prices have been falling for four months. This is not a food cost story. It is systemic.

"While an economy-wide generalized deflation is yet to be seen, the deflationary spiral looks to have started in some industrial sectors, attesting to considerable stress with the economy. Persistent deflation can be poisonous," said Xianfang Ren from IHS Global Insight in Beijing.

China CPI (Jan 2011 - present)
Source: Trading Economics (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/inflation-cpi)


Indeed it can be poisonous, and China already has the twin-afflictions of the deflation malaise: a fast aging nation, and a surfeit of factories and industrial plant.

Source: #2
Five months ago, we quoted World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s warning of “a spreading crisis” in China that could consume the $75 trillion global economy. Back then we bluntly asked: “China? Or America? Who will crash the global economy first?” Think: China.

China’s economy of 1.3 billion people continues slowing, according to the latest GDP-forecast downgrade from Premier Wen Jiabao, reported Keith Bradsher of the New York Times.

“China might already be in recession,” warns Trefor Moss in his brilliant “5 Signs of the Chinese Economic Apocalypse” in the journal Foreign Policy. Actually, five huge apocalypses. “The numbers show that the country’s storied growth engine has slipped out of gear. Businesses are taking fewer loans. Manufacturing output has tanked. Interest rates have unexpectedly been cut. Imports are flat. GDP growth projections are down.” Wen Jiabao’s 2012 growth target at 7.5%, if it happens, “would be China’s lowest annual growth rate since 1990.”

[...]

Export growth is also slowing — to Europe and the U.S., as well as Brazil. In fact, “exporters are going bust, and some factories that remain open have switched from three shifts to just one.” Meanwhile, migrant workers are creating “mass incidents” that could explode into an inland version of Tiananmen Square as China, as a developed nation, finds its growth rate gradually slowing. Think: Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street, Greek riots.

Obviously the Chinese are having real problems blending central planning with free-market capitalism in a global marketplace with everybody competing for the same scarce resources. China’s learning these lessons the hard way. The price of coal has dropped 10% in the past year. “This drop could further dent the global economy,” cooling demand for exports.
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Remember Point #2: Property values are plummeting
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Source: #2
China’s central government decided to cool the overheated real-estate market. Property sales and revenue then dropped, creating a shortage of cash and confidence among potential buyers. Sounds familiar? Like here in America, where government revenues declined with taxpayers’ and investors’ income and spending? Yes, China’s economy is slowing. China, in fact, is most likely in a recession. And exporting it to America.

Source: #1
The problem was the explosive growth of credit in the preceding years. China was no slouch in this area. The IMF’s Zhu Min says loans doubled to almost 200pc of GDP between 2006 and 2011, including off-books lending.

This is roughly twice the intensity of credit growth – around 50 percentage points of GDP – before the US and Japanese blow-offs.

There seems to a near universal assumption that China can pull the levers of the state banking system and set off a fresh credit boom whenever it wants.

Well, perhaps, but loan demand has withered. The big four banks lent just 190bn yuan in June, down from 253bn in May.

"Large banks are all offering money, but no one is taking it," said a Shanghai dealer quoted by Reuters. This is more or less what happened in Japan in the 1990s, what is happening in Europe now. It is what happened to half the world in the 1930s.
---

Remember Point #3: Chinese provinces are in trouble -- pumping money in won't work
---
Source: #2
Warning: China’s local governments drowning in debt
Remember the hundreds of billions of dollars that went to U.S. banks? Well, the China central government gave a $586 billion stimulus package to local governments.

Back in the boom days, many of China’s local governments went wild, like pension funds in America, and bought fleets of “flashy cars.” But now, for example, “the city of Wenzhou is planning to auction off 80% of its vehicles this year,” reports Moss. “That’s 1,300 cars, with similar fire sales occurring nationwide.”

Remember Point #4: They’ve already built their ghost cities
---
Source: #1
Macao’s casino revenue – that closely watched proxy for the Chinese economy – dropped 11pc in June. Commodity stockpiles are grinding ever higher, with coal depots bursting at Tianjin and other key ports.

Steelhome China Thermal Coal Inventory Tianjin Port (YTD)
Source: Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SCVCTIAN:IND/chart)


Steelhome China Thermal Coal Inventory Tianjin Port (5 Years)
Source: Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SCVCTIAN:IND/chart)


[A]t the end of the day, the country is bursting with industrial over-capacity. As Caixin reported recently, eight of the ten largest shipyards did not receive any new orders in the first five months of the year.

Source: #2
[...] China started importing to satisfy increasing energy demands. But now “China’s ports are piled high with coal that should be roaring in the country’s power plants.” Why? “Lower manufacturing output,” answers Moss. Last year planners were stockpiling emergency coal. Now demand is dropping as “hard-pressed citizens, businesses, and factories cut their electricity consumption in order to reduce their bills.”
---

More disturbing trends
---
Source: #2

Chinese billionaires don’t trust their government, so they’re “looking overseas to invest in high-end property,” creating a wave of wealthy Chinese seeking foreign residences. Why? Great deals. Versus too many local restrictions. And, notes Moss, as “a hedge against political and economic uncertainty at home.”

Moss reports that Chinese prosecutors have gone after 19,000 dirty officials since 2000: “China’s wealthy and politically powerful are often members of the same family, and if China really does go into recession, a lot of rich people may decide to cut and run.”
---

Earlier this week, MarketWatch’s Carla Mozee reported that China’s slowdown is already impacting stocks in Brazil, one of China’s leading trading partners. (Source: #2).

Albert Edwards from Societe Generale said the danger now is that China suddenly lurches into a deeper downturn, unleashing a flood of excess goods onto global markets and sending a powerful deflationary impulse across the world (Source: #1).

7-12-2012 Conclusion
The bell ringing and hand waving in December about this Summer ultimately seems to be, at least in part, correct. There's no getting around it, China has new found problems and as the second largest economy in the world (and the fastest growing of the big boys), the balance of the global economic system may be in the balance. After all, who's going to come to the rescue? The EuroZone? Will that term even exist in five years? The United States? Really?...

This is scary stuff but there has been scary stuff written about China before... for a long time. Ultimately, I don't think anyone knows, and whoever ends up being right (between those that see this as a cataclysm and those that don't), in many ways, they may be right out of coincidence.

I will leave you with the final words from the article in Source #1:

"Woe betide the world if China does indeed land with a thud. We will then have a synchronised planetary slump for the first time since you know when."
---

Here's the thing... If China is reporting slower GDP growth openly, what's really happening? Does 7.7% (annualized) really mean that or does it mean 6.7%... or 5.7%... or negative growth? Looking at company specific "disclosures," China has been the epitome of poor transparency. Note just the title of the article I posted six days after the 7-12-2012 article:
Is China Collapsing into a Fraud Epidemic... Just Like the US?

The EuroZone is not the game to watch... Watch China.  Then use your magic glasses that turn what you're seeing into some sort of truth -- whatever that truth is.

Don't panic -- but acknowledge one when it happens.  This too shall pass.  Even if it passes after a disaster... Just remember, today is not a disaster... And tomorrow isn't here yet.


And all the fraud epidemic stuff... As a famously quoted Buddhist monk once said, "Is that so?"


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