Tuesday, December 2, 2014

* Mastercard (MA) - Stock Breaks All-time highs... But is it Artificial? Two Charts May Stun You.


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MA is trading $87.64, up 0.2% small with IV30™ up 6.0%. The Symbol Summary is included below.

Provided by Livevol


Conclusion
MA is breaking all-time highs in stock price today, hitting over $100B in market cap and now trading at a price to earnings ratio of over 30.  Things look good at MA, but one phenomenon in particular makes this new high feel a little bit... artificial?

I wrote a full story that covers more than just MA on MarketWatch. You can read that article here:
5 charts show how stock repurchases boost prices


The visualization below takes all North American companies with market caps above $50B and charts market cap on the x-axis and stock repurchases over total assets on the y-axis.

What do ya know, MA has the second largest stock buybacks of this group, and other than MON, it's on a totally different island (number three is APPL... by the way).

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories




Stock Price vs. Stock Repurchases
Is there a correlation between the stock price and the stock repurchases?,,, Actually, yes, a striking gone.  MA stock has risen ~250% since 2011 ans stock repurchases have increased ~285%.  A correlation does not mean causality... but it does mean... well, a correlation.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories


Finally, the Options Tab is included below.

Provided by Livevol

Using the at-the-money (ATM) straddle we can see that the option market reflects a price range of [$85,$91] by the end of trading on Dec. 19th.


  • If you believe the stock will be outside that range on expiry or any date before then, then you think the volatility is too low.
  • If you believe that range is too wide, and that the stock will definitively be in that range on expiration, then you think volatility is too high.
  • If you're not sure, and can make an argument for either case, then you think volatility is priced just about right.



This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






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1 comment:

  1. I would like to see the same story done for $MON

    ReplyDelete