Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) - Call Buyers Pile into Mar as Volatility Explodes; Is "Something" About to Happen?

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XIN is trading $4.86, down 2.5% with IV30™ exploding up 50.4%. The Symbol Summary is included below.

Provided by Livevol

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (Xinyuan) is a developer of large-scale residential real estate projects aimed at providing middle-income consumers with a comfortable and convenient community lifestyle.

This is a volatility and order flow note in a a $350MM market cap Chinese real-estate company (and website).

Let's start with the Stats Tab, below.

Provided by Livevol

We can see that nearly 8,000 calls have traded today on a total daily average volume of just 291.  Most of the action has been in the Mar 5 calls.  Let's turn to the Options Tab, below.

Provided by Livevol

We can see that 5,799 Mar 5 calls have traded thus far on existing open interest (OI) of just 725.  Or, in English, these trades are almost certainly opening.  But, it is interesting to note that there are no block trades. Check out the largest executions for the Mar 5 strike, below:


Provided by Livevol

Look how the largest trade was a 414 lot, although that was executed at the same time as a 170 lot and within 54 seconds of a 197 lot.  let's assume that's the same buyer, that's still just 781 contracts.  Hardly a huge buyer.  Or... it is a huge buyer, but he is breaking his trades into little pieces...

So, in English, this is either a guy with some good information or its retail trades that mean nothing... How helpful was that?

Let's turn to the Charts Tab (two-years) below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).

Provided by Livevol

On the stock side I note that the price was in the $7.50 range not too long ago, but also, the price is up from ~$2.50 over the last two-years.

But it's the vol that;'s in play right now.  Let's turn to the IV30™ chart in isolation, below (one-year)

Provided by Livevol

Look at that massive spike today.  The implied is up over 50% and is nearing an all-time high.  If we look back to the Options Tab (way back up top), we can see across the top in the green numbers that Mar vol is up 43.5 volatility points which is actually an 85% rise in that expiry.

So what about all this?

Well, this is a pretty small Chinese real-estate firm that acquired ~$50MM of real estate in NY and now ads are showing up on websites in Chinese to sell that property.  Is NY prime property going to sell online?... In Chinese?...

It appears that it may.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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