Amphenol (APH) - Bullish Trades Roll In, Vol Pops

APH is trading $59.98, up 3.0% with IV30™ up 5.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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APH is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems, and coaxial and high-speed specialty cable.

The company has traded over 6,000 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 375. Calls have traded on nearly a 31:1 ratio to puts. The action is in the Feb 55 and 60 calls - both look like purchases to me. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates that the calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size).



The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



The skew looks pretty normal - I do note that vol difference that's opening up between Feb and Mar.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



The stock had earnings a couple of weeks ago and basically did nothing. The company announced a stock repo. program on 1-26-11, but that's about all I can find here. On the vol side (bottom of chart), we can see that IV30™ is now higher than it was into earnings.

Possible Trades to Analyze
1. Calendar Spread:
Sell the Feb 55/60 strangle @ $1.35 (~32 vol).
Buy the Mar 55/60 strangle for $2.40 (~27 vol).
Pay $1.05 to own the back - hope that APH goes to one of the strikes and pins on Feb expo.

2. Bet along side order flow:
Buy the Feb 55/60 call spread and pay less than $2.50. This is a coin flip with MaxGain:MaxLoss 1:1 (if done for $2.50), and the stock is $1.98 in the money to the 55 calls. For a bullish play, this is a reasonable bet.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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