Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Deutsche Bank (DB) - Earnings Vol & Skew

DB is trading 64.50. Earnings are 2/4/2010 BMO (tomorrow). The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

Several skew charts are presented below - click any image to enlarge it.
(1) Current Skew: Note the vol difference between the front (red) and other months, specifically the second month (yellow) (i.e 49 - 43 = 6).

(2) Skew as of 1/21/2010 - i.e. What you might expect the skew to return to after earnings are released and the ensuing vol crush. Note the convergence of red to the other months.

(3) Skew as of 10/28/2009 - The day before the last earnings release. The vol difference between the front (red) and the second month (yellow) is ~2 vol points.

Finally, the Charts Tab snapshot is included below (click the image to enlarge it).

Note in this chart:
(1) In the bottom part of this chart (the volatility), the HV20™ (blue line) is actually above the IV30™ (red line) currently (the far right of the chart).
(2) Last earnings cycle (see the "E" icon in the top chart) the stock HV20™ moved significantly more than the IV30™.
(3) Last earnings cycle the stock dipped into earnings, and increased out.
(4) This earnings cycle the stock has dipped into earnings and seems to be turning.

So the first skew chart (today) when compared with the last earnings cycle skew chart (third chart) shows that the front month relative to the other months seems expensive. But, the stock and vol chart shows a similar pattern to last earnings where vol seemed like a purchase (after the fact).

This is an interesting phenomenon which is not terribly common - HV > IV into earnings where last earnings HV moved more than IV. Combine that with a higher front than other months relative to last earnings.

This is trade analysis, not a reccommendation.

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