Friday, February 5, 2010

Airgas (ARG) - Takeover and Order Flow

ARG is trading 62.35 pre-market - up $20 from the close yesterday on an unsolicited cash bid from APD. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

You can see ARG was the number 1 scan for call volume yesterday - "Unusual call volume relative to average." The company traded 1,712% of the average just in calls. The snapshot is below (click to enlarge).

The company traded over 4,800 options today on total daily average option volume of 341. Further, 4,570 were calls for an 18:1 call:put ratio. The Company Tab snapshot is below (click the image to enlarge).

The Options Tab and Trades snapshots are included below - someone bought the Apr 50 and 55 calls on opening open interest. Click either image to enlarge.

The largest Open Interest on all lines on all months for both calls and puts will be (is) the Apr 50 and Apr 55 calls. Coincidence?

Apr 50 Calls: Paid 0.35 and will be woth over $12 today.
Apr 55 Calls: Paid 0.10 and will be worth over $7 today.

Apr 50 calls profit: 1300 * 100 *(12-0.35) = ~$1,500,000 +
Apr 55 calls profit: 2000 * 100 *(7-0.15) = ~$1,400,000

So ~ $3,000,000 made in a day. How lucky?...

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