Thursday, May 26, 2011

Guess? (GES) - Lucky Guess? On Earnings

GES is trading $45.35, up 13.1% off of earnings with IV30™ down 27.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.

Yesterday, on close GES was trading $40.10. The Livevol® Pro Summary from the close is included below.


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This is just a quick note on the order flow yesterday into the earnings release -- I'm sorry I didn't get a note out on it, I was watching it all day. The company traded 47,720 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 2,900. Calls traded on 4.6:1 ratio to puts. The largest trade (which accounted for the lion's share of volume) was a Jun 40/42 call spread for $0.64 done ~15,000x. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).

That spread is now worth $1.50 and quite possibly will close at $2.00 on Jun expo. The details are below:

Opening Trade: 15,000x Jun 40/42 call spread for $0.64 -- $960,000 debit.
Today: 15,000x Jun 40/42 call spread @ $1.50 -- $2,250,000 credit.
So, ~1.35 MM in 12 hours. Nice GES?

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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