Thursday, November 4, 2010

Urban Outfitters (URBN) - Elevated Vol Buyer Bets on Move Within 2 Weeks

URBN is trading $31.65, up small with IV30™ down 1.3%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.


For a limited time we are offering a FREE real-time trial to Livevol Pro™ for non-professional traders. You can get your trial by following the directions here: Click for Free Trial Offer

The company has traded over 12,500 options on total daily average option volume of just 3,438. The action has been a vol buyer in Nov - ~ 5,000 Nov 31 straddles were purchased auto exec for size. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).

Note the size on those trades. Someone just took down the NBBO for all it's size... Nice.

The Options Tab (below) illustrates that the calls and puts are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). It is a bit odd how Nov vol is up so small, there's more stuff with vol that's weird, back to that in a sec...

The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.

I've highlighted the straddle in play. Note how Nov is perfectly smooth, but Dec shows a little bump - interesting how the skew moves intra-day.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).

Here's the weird part - the IV30™ is already substantially elevated relative to both HV20™ and HV180™.

IV30™: 43.01
HV20™: 37.87
HV180™: 37.79

Interesting that this is a vol buyer in Nov on already elevated vol. A $2.50 premium with just a couple weeks ago is a bet on a pretty big move.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Follow Live Trades and Order Flow on Twitter: @Livevol_Pro

Legal Stuff:


  1. Ok. I am confused... The option tab image is for CCI and shows October options. Wrong image uploaded?

  2. So sorry. I just fixed it, thank you for the note.