Tuesday, July 13, 2010

* UPDATE: Alcoa (AA) - Earnings Results

This is an update to the blog posted yesterday Alcoa (AA) - Earnings Preview and Vol Trading Pattern.

AA is trading $11.09 with IV30™ down 8.5%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

In yesterday's article I noted that:
AA has followed a consistent earnings pattern for four out of the last five earnings starting with the 4-7-2009 cycle and ending with the last earnings cycle on 4-12-2010. Specifically, a straddle sale at the close on the day of earnings and a purchase back the day after was a winner each time.

AA had earnings last night, the Options Tab today (after earnings) is included (click to enlarge).

We can see the ATM straddle is now worth $0.41. Yesterday, the straddle was worth exactly twice that; i.e. $0.82. The one day trade would have turned a 50% profit ex-commissions. The updated earnings and dividends stats are included (click to enlarge).

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Legal Stuff:

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for showing the trade. I am a newbie to options and am trying to make sense of the analysis here. Great stuff.