![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTIBd9OboZ8EFXThKVPtmHxzp8ydm1Z3lKLXpAnZjya8wvDtNq9TjYyMblYOGQqlfvbzXZLVAKNBo1fR8u_3SKfs4chkb9qLlMxQjJ3zO-NjBCZmC8oj9pxiLpBcxXfLZUh7JKJSVTghIS/s400/adm_summary.jpg)
ADM is engaged in procuring, transporting, storing, processing, and merchandising agricultural commodities and products. At 9:45 EST, a 3,010 lot of Sep 27 calls went up. It looks like they were purchases. You can see the tick chart explode upward about $0.40 at that time (click to enlarge).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjglwIGpT0h14MpXajqZ3cLSwiiAMktyNIp2JK78zCq5gUxmFB92l5W9psspGTgWtAwg_RQXSqFjKpFULJP52c7f78uSfZSZxuFEgGxf1sTskbB79w36J9flhqapKMp8PZKGP22IMQTWYnY/s400/adm_tick_chart.gif)
The company traded over 19,000 options on total daily average option volume of just 6,542. All but 2,605 contracts were calls yielding a 6:1 call:put ratio. The action was in the Sep 27 and Sep 30 calls; purchases from what I can tell. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (click either image to enlarge).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyADU7tkwCZvAeJGRKkmA6EYOIbYhdu75p8V3yri56gFKKQ03FkVn2Jj2g2DHNdLu0zRdfduW6HlhzfjwSlLGyYs4QaI87pvJIoqa9efE9KOXYov-m8eMWpZ45vQo4n9mlKRfUt-7-ASac/s400/adm_stats.gif)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwAiMN-LBBkVKfOEspbC2HSHnE2uraPmverNApryU-rBgUDkkgLZmYzaxIESPs6m4somVwmPtoJ8gtm1WwoHbpx72BhRuXzSO6ir6to1wVl-HXLs7N9yW4pBRoxszRfWbDMZbtcaMIjeo-/s400/adm_trades.gif)
The Options Tab (click to enlarge) illustrates that the Sep 27 calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). It turns out the Sep 30 calls were opening too; the OI today is 8,904 so the previous open positions were also long. This looks like a call stupid (purchase/purchase)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGGQiu2OBTDtmj1etZths-JTN7CoBO3GlUE5csYNRJlxrVCgQ-vnI7pfkrCfN6YI6mfMUxCzPk_P7rYZrjnaZAP4lt1uyrZWAFl0rseGlOXPcmFvNmuUQrjTcRSH4hzKTrbish7zU4NgVv/s400/adm_options.jpg)
The Skew Tab snap (click to enlarge) illustrates the vols by strike by month.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmPk3-Ti1CTTn88cSAlyL1NM4POjj1FnklyVCjNZpnPr-EjS-WD2d1DKY1lPPGltIJ8vcR16KzVLz_iKLAlJtcaQT5OzNbMP6rgY4UTKSNYgjJmX71rqzUHwNdn0MaQp7GAnvn_t9zI9be/s400/adm_skew_7-13-2010.gif)
It's interesting that the Sep upside shows very little movement to the order flow. You can see the 30, 31, 32 calls are bid up a little, but nothing crazy. If the upside does bend up more, a Sep 27/30 call spread (buy/sell) might be a nice trade if you're bullish on this stock. You may be able to get the spread off for <= $0.85 with stock at $27. Just to be clear, although that would be a nice skew trade; it's first and foremost a bullish bet, NOT a vol bet.
Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (click to enlarge). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNA0Usg2OBsRFJnWPF5m9tKydIBUyGNpggqWkLkARH8vQho6_pzzTN0znDGlCIeNHEy6niJAqgoaM8L-DbxbhRiD3ZHZbRnd1vmrVe0-LABbtY5KwVQZPomJaXxvxtUJFO7FUJvTgbSpjd/s400/adm_charts.gif)
The stock looks like most others; down hard, recovery, down again, and now a recovery again. Note though how high the IV30™ is relative to the HV20™. The more relevant IV60™ is 30.85 compared to HV60™ of 27.96. In other words, no matter how you slice it, IV is higher than HV.
This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.
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