![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPANq77o4bfuVn_wTjyZxiJ5-ubhezDjAza8dkTvQUyV39qdBRMrDKRUmumktU4ie7oH5Xtl3803W9V-FSwO9WPIh4KiKY-yA5N7wilJ_l996HMQ4v_H0-eErcKfSBcJqyJDfLPqdETWkN/s400/hog_summary.gif)
The company has traded over 51,000 options in the first hour on total daily average option volume of just 14,645. The largest trade was a July 20/25 put spread purchase funded by a July 30 call sale 2,187x each. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (click either image to enlarge).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGMp59CvD2gAPWZ7o-jR2XLk0y8KRx8WXCnn9COhGkBJ6c53eFugY1FCgcMu9nvzKHhgLVwRDe6qcwHKzGglbnixjVlTYTRiyNSoxmH1hRcgX28Fh4JpDhoHa0RGRADWp5TRJFSZcR0x1k/s400/hog_stats.gif)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie1y6VtSgkDpExEXNyDoTHxxzrsM8fCLHpqoZlMbw6Z9JrYBOBjzm1YzfilLm6xK8eJ5AXnGKl62WF02Vd2uUkKJT4ke8TpS9wKZe8n_qWKmqala7u17-O1c3YHlplAGIrNZdcTwRzLOIW/s400/hog_trades.gif)
The Options Tab (click to enlarge) illustrates that the puts and the call are mostly opening (trade size >> OI). You can also see the June 28 calls traded 8,430 times, but from what I can tell, that is closing (purchase today to close short interest before).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiahgFElLKH2Kw15Wal7YQNHEVZhfyMhfmH79Yu1rwpMeZ6Jt9XZnoshvRBYAa-JIxahe_rIylWn_vSrnHXSCh6UKPILWwFh-DII-9uMJ6g0HKluV4KpFjEKJInQuqYge85fmIuPvgVY74C/s400/hog_options.gif)
Trade Stats
Buy 2,187 July 25 puts for $1.24
Sell 2,187 July 20 puts @ $0.23
Sell 2,187 July 30 calls @ $0.81
Net debit = 100*2,187*($1.24 - $0.23 -$0.81) = $43,740
Max Gain (at $20) = 100*2,187*$0.81 + 100*2,187*($5.00 - {$1.24 - $0.23}) = $1,049,760
The PnL chart is included (click to enlarge).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIvFRRJ6TN4C8NvNhduOiTR0O3-UzYAhcAJB4YZghHVdQXLPYNsfmnHYWl3IV8oyFdQgHbj4MZ1ki_GgLvWgYOj9G2goOQ-AOznjKwcgSHdUMk_nL02Jzks_PIfhWjjU7YZwJRwqxzL4p6/s400/hog_pnl.gif)
Note the naked upside in return for a cheaper spread (smaller debit).
The Skew Tab snap (click to enlarge) illustrates the vols of the strikes in the trade.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgpN-L-ZqQUUyg-ZosyNJtKXlvQIPmzJ9qZZH65Ej8KbyGlkfCbcS97Syjn8t0QsL3-uga9xwQ1wepEdga3Mmt6aMi2R9u-fbgkSuMnd8sd0n3nhGiCaYkH-mmppvM3suWrvX8PcwG01DB/s400/HOG_SKEW_6-10-2010.gif)
Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (click to enlarge). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEileAq9E8i16myEwMbn8JcgH91615mr4ri7QhdYNG2B9V2sFQmcJ5tQ_94_PQelle8aZBY3-8sqGPcZCva6_-piH_JIYVUsP0_xSPZYDtnbAdfdIp5U9RQmEAO6mXzKPYgJn1G8BfS89m7Q/s400/hog_charts.gif)
You can see HOG has traded over $35 recently and hasn't been below $23. This could be a hedge by a long stock holder. But it is interesting that vol is jumping today with the VIX down ~10% on the market rally.
This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.
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thanks, your blog-posts is cool, BUT
ReplyDeleteWhy your blog haven't any tags/labels.
Navigation is sucks - I cant filter previous posts.
How to navigate over hundreds of posts:
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