Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Denbury Resources (DNR) - Risk Reversal Against Stock Range

DNR is trading 17.02 up 1.0% with IV30™ down 3.9%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

The company has traded over 10,000 options (4,000 + cancelled) on total daily average option volume of just 2,265. ~9,000 options went up in the day's biggest trade, a Dec 14/20 risk reversal (buy puts/ sell calls). The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (click either image to enlarge).

The Options Tab (click to enlarge) illustrates that the calls and the puts in the risky are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size).

The Skew Tab snap (click to enlarge) illustrates the vols trading. Dec looks like a pretty "normal" skew. To read what skew is and why it exists click here.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (click to enlarge). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference.

The stock has been range bound, albeit a large range. 52 wk. lo is 12.45, 52 wk. high is 19.48. Selling the 20 strike seems reasonable given it has not been that high this year and buying the downside below $14 also seems reasonable given the chart.

Net this pays $0.10 to have the downside opportunity while selling the top above a high.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Legal Stuff:

No comments:

Post a Comment