Monday, March 29, 2010

** UPDATE - Popular (BPOP): One Sided Order Flow Grows


First post: Click Here

BPOP is trading 2.72. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

The first blog I wrote on this company was exactly a week ago (3-22-2010). I discussed the growing open interest in the calls (purchases). Today more of the same - with a quick review of the past week as well.

The company has traded over 9,500 options in the first 2 hours on total daily average option volume of just 1,085. Zero puts have traded - it's all calls, mostly the Jul 3.5 kind. Last week, it was 10,000 calls with no puts in the first hour. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (click either image to enlarge).

The Stock Stats snap is included (click to enlarge). Note the volume is right where it should be to hit the average - I don't think these calls are trading with stock. In other words, I don't think these are calls turned into puts - they seem like naked call purchases.

The Options Tab (click to enlarge) illustrates that Jul 3.5 calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size) highlighted in yellow. In orange you can see the OI from the prior week (i.e. the catalyst to the first blog).

The Jul 3.5 calls have 3,801 open contracts already. The Level 2 pop up snap is included (click to enlarge).

You can see the OI jumped as of 3-29-2010 (today). That means the opening orders were Friday (3-26-2010). The Time & Sales snap from Friday for that line filtering for 100 lots or larger is included (click to enlarge).

Pretty simple order flow to analyze - everything traded on the offer - customer buying. The 9,000+ contracts today for the Jul 3.5 calls are in addition to the 3,800 opened on Friday.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (click to enlarge). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV60™ vs. the HV60™ vol difference.

Note again the jump in stock price - nearly 60% since mid Feb.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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