Tuesday, March 2, 2010

** UPDATE: AGU, CF, TRA - It Takes 3 to Tango? Takeover Commotion & Trades

** UPDATE: As of 3-10-2010 TRA has accepted the CF deal; Yara has 5 days to respond.

You can read the original post: CLICK HERE.

The absurdity continues! TRA is trading up 12.8% to 46.49. CF is trading down 3.8% to 103.45. AGU is trading up 2.8% to 67.66. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summaries are below.

The news is this:
Terra Industries shareholders will receive $37.15 per share in cash as well as 0.0953 of a CF Industries Holdings(CF) share. The value of the deal is about $4.74 billion.

-- And --

Agrium (AGU) is offering one share of Agrium common stock and $45.00 in cash for each share of CF Industries common stock. The deal is valued at about $4.52 billion

For those of you unfamiliar with these three companies I have include snippets of the prior post below (you can't make this stuff up).

Here's a quick summary of the last year:

As we sit today, TRA is getting bought out for $47 ($37.15 + 0.0953*103.45).
AGUs bid for CF bid went from $72 to now over $110.

(1) 1-16-2009: CF bids for TRA $2.1 billion
(2) 2-4-2009: CF goes hostile over TRA
(3) 2-25-2009: AGU bids $72 per share for CF
(3a) CF rejects AGU
(4) 5-11-2009: AGU ups bid to $82.50 per share for CF
(5) 5-18-2009: CF rejects AGU (again)
(6) 11-05-2009: AGU ups-bid (again) to $101.90 per share for CF
(7) 11-19-2009: CF rejects AGU (again)
(8) 12-07-2009: CF re-ups (again) for TRA (8th time) (more than double prior bid)
(9) 1-14-201: CF walks away from TRA
(10) 2-16-2010: TRA gets bid $4.52 billion from Yara
(11) 3-2-2010: TRA gets bid $4.74 billion from CF

In terms of trades, I'll just say exactly what I said last time:
Is there a way to trade this? Just look at the headlines.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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