Thursday, August 1, 2013

NQ Mobile (NQ) - Volatility Exploding, Stock Exploding, Earnings Coming

NQ is trading $15.95, down 1.2% with IV30™ up 0.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.

NQ Mobile Inc. (NQ), formerly NetQin Mobile Inc., is a holding company. The Company is a global provider of mobile Internet services focusing on security, privacy and productivity. The Company is a provider of Freemium subscription services with approximately 242 million registered user accounts in over 150 countries.

This is a vol note -- a rather explosive one along side some explosive stock moves of late. All of these phenomena are in the backdrop of an earnings release 8-12-2013 (BMO), or in English, in twelve days.

Let's start with the one-year Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).

One year ago this was a $7.82 stock, so it has seen more than a 100% rise in the last twelve months. But, as we can see in the stock chart, that's not the eye-popping part. Look at the stock rip of late. On 6-24-2013 this was a $7.38 stock. Now, just six weeks later, the stock is up more than 115%. Whoa...

And what about the volatility... yeah... what about it?... let's turn to the one-year IV30™ chart, below.

On 7-18-2013 the implied closed at 72%. Today we see it trading over 135%. So a 90% (ish) increase in thirteen calendar days. The vol rise is in coincidence with the stock rise, so I'm not buying the idea that this is simply a reflection of the earnings announcement due out in a couple of weeks. In fact, the prior high in IV30™ into an earnings announcement (before this one) was 110%. We're already 25 vol points higher (actually it's 27 vol points a I'm writing this article) with quite some time before the actual earnings date.

This is both a phenomenally high stock price and volatility level for NQ. The 52 wk low in IV30™ is 64.02%.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.

Across the top we can see that Aug vol is priced to 146.56% and Sep is priced to 119.95%. The Sep number is quite elevated to the vols in the last year, not to mention Aug, which is in its own world.

This is one to watch... right now...

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Legal Stuff:
Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

No comments:

Post a Comment