Thursday, March 28, 2013

Repros (RPRX) - Stock Pops 80% B/C Gay Cubans Have Lots of Sex...?

RPRX is trading $16.22, up 77.7% with IV30™ down 54.5%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.


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Repros Therapeutics, Inc. is a United States-based company that develops products and services for the management of reproductive health.

I last wrote about RPRX on 3-1-2013 (i.e. about a month ago). You can read that post here (and I have included the Symbol Summary from that day below as well.:

Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) - Vol Rising in Gapping Stock; Headed to Multi-year Vol Highs into Earnings... Buckle Up



"Buckle up" indeed was correct. Here's the news moving the stock, and I am not kidding about the headline:

THE WOODLANDS, Texas (TheStreet) -- Yes, Repros Therapeutics(RPRX) CEO Joe Podolski really did get on a conference call Thursday morning to say that his experimental testosterone drug Androxal helped gay Cubans have more sex.

The gay Cubans entered the clinical trial with low testosterone. But after taking Androxal, their testosterone levels rose, leading to lots of sex, Podolski explained. The gay Cuban men had so much sex, in fact, that it caused their sperm counts to fall. Don't blame Androxal for lower sperm counts, Podolski said, blame gay Cubans having so much sex that their ammunition ran low.

At another point during the conference call, Podolski disclosed that a nurse at one of the Androxal clinical trial sites fabricated baseline sperm counts for patients. When Repros discovered the data fraud, the company changed the numbers and everything turned out fine.

Source: TheStreet via Yahoo! Finance;
Repros CEO: My Testosterone Drug Helped Gay Cubans Have Lots of Sex, written by Adam Feuerstein.

Well, there you go. There is some disturbing news about some fabricated sperm counts, but I guess that's kinda not a big deal?... As far as I can tell, this is not an FDA trial, it's just sort of circumstantial evidence of the drug's efficacy?

Let's turn to the Charts Tab (one-year) below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).

Three phenomena catch my eye:
1. This was a $4 stock a year ago... Whoa...
2. The incredible stock pop today.
3. The equally impressive vol drop.

Let's turn to the IV30™ chart in isolation below, for the same one-year time period.

Obviously, the point here is the vol drop. So, regardless of whether this is FDA relevant or not, the option market was reflecting heightened risk due to these results and now that they are out, the risk (vol) has collapsed.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.

Across the top we can see Apr vol is priced to 81.84% and May is priced to 75.53%. ultimately this is some excellent news for the firm, or so the equity market says. i guess the potential impropriety by a nurse is nothing to be worried about?... So, everything else was measured correctly?

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