Monday, April 23, 2012

Michael Kors Holdings (KORS) - Stock and Vol Pop Intraday

KORS is trading $42.88, up 3.9% with IV30™ up 9.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.


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Michael Kors Holdings Limited is a designer, marketer, distributor and retailer of women’s apparel and accessories and men’s apparel bearing the Michael Kors name and MICHAEL KORS, MICHAEL MICHAEL KORS, KORS MICHAEL KORS and various other related logos.

This is a vol note as the stock has taken off today in a down market, moving higher intraday. Let's start with the Tick Chart (one-day / one-minute ticks). The top portion is the stock, the bottom is the front month vol.

We can see that the vol popped early on, while the stock has seen a more methodical rise -- which continues into this writing as I see the stock ticking up to $43.39. What's odd is, I don't see any news.

Let's turn to the Charts Tab, below (~5 months). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).

We can see the stock pop on 2-14-2012 off of earnings, rising from $33.61 to $42.85 or 27.5%. On the vol side, we can see a relatively quiet implied right now, and an incredible tracking to the HV20™ after the earnings release.

Let's turn to the Skew Tab.

We can see an obvious vol difference between the second and first months. That's due to the next earnings release, which is due out in the Jun cycle. Given the reaction off of the last (and only) earnings release, that a large vol diff feels right.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.

We can see the vol diff across the top by comparing the front two expiries: 41.31% for May and 50.97% for Jun. I do note that upside skew in the front month (and the move today).

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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