Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Limited Brands (LTD) - Depressed Vol

LTD is trading $31.28, up 0.6% with IV30™ down 2.5%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



LTD is a specialty retailer of women’s intimate and other apparel, beauty and personal care products and accessories under various trade names.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for low vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price >= $7
IV30™ - HV20™ <= -8 >= -40
HV180™ - IV30™ >=7
Average Option Volume >= 1,200
Industry != Bio-tech
Days After Earnings >= 32

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Pro™.



The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is depressed both to the recent stock movement (HV20™) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180™). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not purchasing depressed IV30™ relative to HV20™ simply because of a large earnings move.

The LTD Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see:
IV30™: 26.46
HV20™: 38.64
HV180™: 36.85

So, IV30™ is depressed relative to the short term and long term realized movement of the stock. One note, the HV20™ is actually elevated b/c of a large dividend, the actual (or more appropriate) HV20™ is more like ~30.5. I've drawn in that HV20™ line in white for a better visual demonstration. Either way, the IV30™ feels lowish.

Let's look to the Skew Tab (below).



I've highlighted the Jan ATM straddle. We can see it's depressed to Feb as well.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Possible Trades to Analyze
1. Start simple, buy vol:
Buy the Jan 31 straddle for $2.00 (~27 vol).

2. A little bullish twist, buy vol:
Buy the Jan 30/31 strangle for $1.70 (~28 vol).
Sell 2 of the Jan 29 puts @ $0.25 (~29 vol).
This is naked short the downside but reduces the debit to $1.20. Note that makes the downside MaxGain just $0.80.

3. Make a small bullish bet with low probability but high payout:
Do the Jan 31/32/33 butterfly and pay $0.20. This is contrarian to the low vol purchases. This trade bets that LTD will pin at (or around) $32 on Jan expo. The MaxGain is $0.80 with MaxLoss $0.20 (or 4:1). The odds of this paying out are low, but it is a bet that the low vol is "justified." Other interesting butterflies also exist.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Monday, December 20, 2010

NetFlix (NFLX) - Time to Buy Vol?

NFLX is trading $178.31, down 0.9% with IV30™ down 5.9%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



I found NFLX stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for low vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price >= $7
IV30™ - HV20™ <= -8 >= -40
HV180™ - IV30™ >=7
Average Option Volume >= 1,200
Industry != Bio-tech
Days After Earnings >= 32

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Pro™.



The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is depressed both to the recent stock movement (HV20™) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180™). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not purchasing depressed IV30™ relative to HV20™ simply because of a large earnings move.

The NFLX Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference.





We can see:
IV30™: 45.32
HV20™: 53.48
HV180™: 57.45

So, IV30™ is depressed relative to the short term and long term realized movement of the stock. Looking to the Skew Tab (below) we can see an interesting phenomenon.



Look how the ATM Dec (Weeklies) have lower vol than the Jan monthlies. This is a little unusual, but it reflects the fact that this is basically as dead a time as there is in the financial markets. The OTM options are priced at significantly higher vol than Jan though (as expected).

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Possible Trades to Analyze
1. Ignore Dec, Buy the depressed IV30™:
Buy the Jan 180 straddle for $19.10 (~45 vol).

2. Do #1, but get on the "this week is boring" bandwagon and sell the Dec 180 straddle @ $5.70 (~42 vol).

3. Skip Jan, skip the "conventional" thinking:
Buy the Dec (Weekly) 180 call for $2.10 and look for a move up on Tu, W or Th.

4. Do #1, but sell some elevated Dec (Weekly) skew rather than the depressed ATM vol.:
Buy the Jan 180 straddle for $19.10 (~45 vol).
Sell the Dec (Weekly) 170/185 strangle @ $1.30 (~46 vol).

5. Do #4, but just sell the puts (~52 vol).

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Legal Stuff:
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MGIC (MTG) - Call Bonanza in Mortgage Insurer

MTG is trading $10.00, down small with IV30™ up 2.6%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



MTG is a holding company. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the Company provides private mortgage insurance in the United States.

The company has traded over 61,600 contracts in an hour on total daily average option volume of just 5,634. Over 61,500 calls have traded yielding a 317:1 call:put ratio. 60,000 calls traded in a single trade:

Buy 20,000 2012 Jan 20 calls paid $0.32
Sold 15,000 March 9 calls @ $1.56
Buy 25,000 Feb 10 calls paid $0.92

Color from Mike Bristow of the Vtrader Group. But this trade is more interesting than it looks on the surface. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates that:
Feb 10 calls calls are entirely opening (compare OI to trade size).
Jan'12 20 calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size).
Mar 9 calls are ambiguous as Trade volume = OI.

I did a little hunting and found that the Mar 9 call interest opened on 11-15-2010 and it was a purchase for ~ $1.05. That means the sale today was a close of a long position that won ~$0.50 15,000x or $750,000. So it's a $750,000 win with another purchase for $2.94 million in the other calls.



Take it a step further, we can see the Jan 12.5 calls have 25,000+ OI as well. As far as I can tell, that is long interest (on 11-5-2010 about 13,000 were purchased for ~$1.68).

So the position now is:
Long 20,000 Jan'12 20 calls
Long 25,000 Feb 10 calls
Long 25,000 Jan'12 12.5 calls

Whoa!

The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



I've circled the strikes that traded today. The skew actually look pretty normal, which is weird to me.

Finally, the Charts Tab (12 months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see MTG was as high as $13.80 on 4-16-2010, then fell off substantially on earnings.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Legal Stuff:
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Friday, December 17, 2010

optionsXpress (OXPS) - Earnings Vol Trade

OXPS is trading $20.22, up 1.1% with IV30™ up 2.6%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



Ok, let's be honest, it's deader, than... well... dead... But this one is interesting in OXPS given that earnings are after the Jan cycle.

The stock just came up on a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for calendar spreads between the front two months.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price >= $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 >= 8
Average Option Volume >= 1,000
Industry != Bio-tech
Days After Earnings >=5 <=70
Sigma1, Sigma2 >= 1

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Pro™.



The goal with this scan is to identify back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 8 vol points. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated front month vol simply because earnings are approaching.

Looking to the OXPS Skew Tab (below), we can see the elevated vol in the front month (red line) relative to the second month (yellow line).



We can see how Jan month is elevated to March. Note in particular the vol diff between the 17.5 lines.

Now we can turn to the Charts Tab - just the stock portion (below).



OXPS paid a big divi recently, the stock rose into that - kind of choppy prices.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



We are projecting OXPS earnings to be released around 1-27-2011. The actual date right now isn't important, it's that it falls after the Jan options cycle.
-----------------------------
WARNING: The effect of the large divi (which in fact has not been paid yet) is unknown. This is probably a "stay away" in my opinion.
-----------------------------

Potential Trades to Analyze
1. The Jan/Mar 17.5 put spread costs ~$0.20. Interesting because not only does March have two more months the Jan, but it also has an earnings event (volatility event).

2. The Jan/Mar 20 put spread (or call spread) has a similar design. The put spread costs ~$0.35.

3. Waiting until Monday to see Feb options is a possibility as well. The spread will be even tighter between Jan/Feb.


This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Legal Stuff:
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) - Depressed Vol and Earnings Gaps

CSCO is trading $19.59, down 0.8% with IV30™ unched. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for low vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price >= $7 <= $70
IV60™ >= 1
IV60™ - HV60™ <= -8 >= -40
HV180™ - IV60™ >= 8
Average Option Volume >= 1,200
Industry != Bio-tech

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Pro™.



The goal with this scan is to identify intermediate-term implied vol (IV60™) that is depressed both to the intermediate stock movement (HV60™) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180™). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume) and want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol).

The CSCO Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, bottom is the vol: IV60™ - yellow vs HV60™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see:
IV60™:22.53
HV60™: 40.53
HV180™: 35.56

So, IV60™ is depressed relative to the intermediate term and long term realized movement of the stock. Also note that the stock has gapped down after the last two earnings releases. It's this move that has HV60™ (and HV180™ to a lesser degree) elevated.

HV180™ (the long-term trend in realized stock movement) went from ~25 to ~28 after the 8-2010 earnings cycle, and then from ~28 to ~35 after the most recent earnings cycle (11-2010). It feels like a purchase of 25 vol would be "fair value" excluding the big earnings moves, and with the earnings moves is cheap.

Also note that after the 8-2010 earnings gap down, the stock made it almost all the way back to the original price pre-earnings. Hmm...

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



So the Feb options are priced at around 27 vol.

Possible Trades to Analyze
1. If you want to bet that either:
(a) CSCO will move on earnings again
or
(b) CSCO will slowly meander back to the stock level pre-earnings collapse (i.e. ~$24)
Then:
Buy the Feb 19/20 strangle for $1.32 or ~ 27 vol. This can be closed pre-earnings if CSCO stock moves away from these levels, or held into earnings for a bet on a stock move. Note that this trade does have a time decay element.

2. If you want to bet that CSCO makes its way back to ~$24 before the next earnings cycle (like after the 8-2010 collapse):
Buy the Jan 20 calls for $0.37 or 22 vol. That feels like a cheap (ish) bet. Obviously this carries a delta - it's a bet that the stock moves up.

It's also totally reasonable to just wait and see what happens to stock and the Feb options for a few weeks. Maybe there's a better entry, or there's just no trade at all.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Legal Stuff:
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Thursday, December 16, 2010

AKS Steel (AKS) - Calls Trade, Vol Pops, Rumors Return

AKS is trading $15.06, up 4.5% with IV30™ up 1.5%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



The company has traded over 22,000 contracts in less than three hours on total daily average option volume of just 8,733. Over 21,000 calls have traded, yielding a 16:1 call:put ratio. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates the action. Most of the trading is in Jan, where over 17,000 Jan 15, 16 or 19 calls have traded. Jan 19 shows over 10k on OI of just 677. These were mostly purchased for $0.06 and less. Jan 15 may actually be sales, Jan 16 could be purchases.



The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



The Jan 17.5, 19 and 20 calls actually have higher vol than March from the order flow. What's cool is that earnings are 1-25-2010, which is in the March (and soon to be Feb) cycle. So, in English, the non-earnings OTM calls have higher vol than the earnings vol OTM calls.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see the stock has steadily climbed of late. On the vol side (bottom), we can see the IV30™ is right in between the HV180™ and HV20™. The Livevol Strategy Group wrote this earlier today:
"AKS is periodically rumored to be in the sights of larger steel company, Nucor (NUE)."

Hmm...

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Special Edition: Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA)

The following is a Special Edition Blog:

Cathy Clay and Kevin Nichols from the Livevol Strategy Group were recently interviewed to discuss Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA): the practice of viewing a trade from inception to execution and analyzing the market conditions before and after the order is placed to collect transaction costs and trade efficiencies. The full story was posted in the John Lothian Newsletter.

Commentary - Story - Q&A

Evolving Technology Enables Transaction Cost Analysis in Options Market

MarketsWiki’s Jessica Titlebaum sat down with LiveVol’s Catherine Clay and Kevin Nichols to discuss this new concept and how it could potentially revolutionize the options markets.

Q. What is Transaction Cost Analysis in your own words?

Catherine Clay: Transaction cost analysis is viewing a trade from inception to execution and measuring all the costs that occurred throughout the trade lifecycle. Most of TCA is done in the equity world and done after the trade has been sent. You hear more about post trade TCA, which looks at the trade related to entry-established benchmarks against an algorithm. From the captured data, you can decide if the trade was favorable or not. These investors are looking to see if the end result was what they intended it to be.

Q. What types of firms are using this most?

C.C.: The buy-side is using this tool the most because a fund that is trying out different strategies and different traders is always trying to determine how much a trade is costing them.

Kevin Nichols: I would say about 95% of firms on the equity side use some sort of transaction cost analysis to analyze trade execution costs. This is mostly on the post-trade side but there is also a fair amount of pre-trade that is forecasted as well.

C.C.: I believe that everything in the equity markets progresses into the options market. While the options market is more difficult to analyze because of the large amounts of data churned out, we see the practice of TCA 25% prevalent.

Q. When did TCA first come on to the scene?

C.C.: I think the concept has been around for a few decades but it stems from a rudimentary look at post-trade analysis. Technology has evolved and firms like LiveVol, which are built on tick data, provide new capabilities such as capturing very granulated information. For example, we can now tell you what the market was like in the underlying market before and after your trade, how much of the order is being filled and how the market was impacted by the order. Essentially, it’s only been in the last decade that firms have taken this holistic approach.

Capturing tick data is a hardware intensive endeavor and very few firms were capturing all of the data in the marketplace. As technology has improved and people capture more data, this type of analysis has been more available to people. Underpinning the crucial point of TCA is the data.

K.N.: Transaction cost analysis has also become more important with the growth in the options markets and the number of exchanges and dark pools that have appeared.

When Catherine and I started trading equity options there were four exchanges - and this was before multiple listings! Once multiple listings happened, most people thought that we were going to see a lot of consolidation and that didn’t happen. This is on the options side but this is similar to the equity side of things. With Exchange Connectivity Networks (ECNs) and Alternative Trading Systems (ATSs), these people have to justify their routing decisions and prove to the sellers, their customers, that they are getting good fills.

C.C.: Also, on the equity side, when the SEC adopted the REG NMS initiative, order routers had to prove to the SEC and their customers that they were doing their best fiduciary responsibility to route orders to the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO). They need statistics to back that up.

On the options side, there are rules that require options order routers to publish those statistics as well.

Q. What kind of data is important for TCA?

C.C.: Tick data is needed for transaction cost analysis such as: what the market was at the time of the execution as well as what the market was on all regional exchanges, because you need to honor the NBBO.

For example, you may have sent your order to the New York Stock Exchange but there was a better bid at one of the ECNs or BATS and you can’t trade through that. So you have to collect all of the national best bid and offers in the marketplace at the time of your trade. That is the bare minimum amount of data you need.

Q. You can use TCA to fine-tune an execution algorithm as well. What kind of data is needed for this?

K.N.: When you start lifting the data to fine tune an execution algorithm, you are going to look at the market when the order was executed as well as what happened in the market before and after you sent the order. You will also need to look at data a few minutes later, a few hours later and at the end of the day. It requires having the data and manipulating and cleaning that information. You can look at this information and if your algorithm didn’t do what it was supposed to do, you can figure out why.

Q. Can you give me another example of how TCA helps beyond the regulatory requirements?

K.N.: On a pre-trade side, you can figure out the personality of a stock before you make the trade and the liquidity that is actually presented there.

C.C.: It’s looking at what happened in the post trade analysis to understand what should happen in the future, and then incorporating that information into your next pre-trade analysis. What’s really crucial about this tool is that it helps you find liquidity. This is what a lot of the statistics are looking for; where is the hidden liquidity?

And once you know these statistics, we can break this down even further. You can get such fine-tuned granularity that you can be very informed about what time of day liquidity is greatest and accelerate your trading to coincide with the times that have been identified through TCA, so you get better fills.

Q. Can you tell me about the LiveVol TCA tool?

C.C.: We only recently started developing this tool and the demand has been overwhelming. Our suite of TCA products goes far beyond best-execution metrics. We take advantage of our capability to capture all this data in the marketplace and record market statistics in great detail. We capture every trade that happens at every exchange in the options and equity markets, as well as the size of the trade and the trade conditions. For example, was it traded with stocks or spreads?

We also record implied volatility with the time of the trade, including all the Greeks. We record every quote in the marketplace and track every trade by taking a snapshot of the trade when it hits the market to see the impact of the trade. We also take a snapshot of the market before the trade to determine market changes before and after the trade.

K.N.: The interest is not just on the buy side but also on the sell-side and from market making firms. On one side customers want to know what type of execution they received, and on the flip side, they want to know if they are paying for short order flow.

If someone has their execution log, they can also analyze with whom they are trading and how profitable the counterparty is. Our tool also enables customers to look at event driven activity and how it impacts the market so we look at corporate events and news releases to see their influence on the market.

Q. What areas of TCA could be improved?

K.N.: I think in the options space it is the different exchange models within the market. For example, we have the maker-taker model or the BOX model - which is the taker-maker model - and then you have standard models with regular transaction costs or costs for taking liquidity or providing it. These costs and your routing decisions need to be taken into consideration at a firm level.

C.C.: The TCA tool is a flow chart telling you where your expenses lie. Whatever your order is, there is an optimal exchange for that order depending on the exchange’s market structure. This concept goes back to your pre-trade analysis, and once you understand market costs at each exchange, you can better make your order routing decisions.

Q. What was the trade cost analysis process before tick data could be captured at such a detailed level?

C.C.: This is a new character in the options market. What equity firms have been doing is a post-trade analysis of their order routing decisions, and relative to midpoint, which is the benchmark that everyone uses – how do their trades fare versus that standard.

A lot of the time you will see firms ask, did we price improve? Did we trade better than the bid or offer for our customers? They will produce statistics for that concept but again, this is a new territory and I think that most firms just meet the minimum of their reporting requirements. And it’s only now that that tools like TCA add value. It’s important to know that companies are pioneering tools that enable a detailed look at the options market and the costs associated with their trading activity on a very specific level.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Ctrip.com (CTRP) - Volatile Stock and Three Day Straddle

CTRP is trading $41.34, up 7.0% with IV30™ down 7.2%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



Ctrip.com International Ltd. is a travel service provider for hotel accommodations, airline tickets and packaged tours in China.
The stock just came up on a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for calendar spreads between the front two months. In order for a trade to have any legs that sells the expiring month this close to expo, there's gotta be a stock move... And we have one with this stock, today.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price >= $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 >= 8
Average Option Volume >= 1,000
Industry != Bio-tech
Days After Earnings >=5 <=70
Sigma1, Sigma2 >= 1

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Pro™.




The goal with this scan is to identify back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 8 vol points. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated front month vol simply because earnings are approaching.

Looking to the Skew Tab (below), we can see the elevated vol in the front month (red line) relative to the second month (yellow line).



We can see how the front month is elevated to the back (which is normal this close to expo). What isn't normal is the size of the spread (vol diff). The Dec/Jan 41 straddle vol diff is ~22 points, or nearly 50% of the IV30™. Whoa...

Last expo (three days prior), the vol difference was more like 11 points. I've included that Skew Chart below.



So the vol difference this time around is due to the stock gap down yesterday, which was pretty size. Today it has rebounded. The thing is, nobody seems to know why the stock gapped down. Here's the news from Motely Fool.com:
----------------
Shares of Chinese travel agency Ctrip.com (Nasdaq: CTRP) dropped more than 13%, on four times the typical day's trading volume. The company has not publicly released news that would explain the large move in shares, but the company's stock is richly valued and tends to be volatile.
Source: MotelyFool
---------------

Hmm...

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Potential Trades to Analyze
1. Sell the Dec 41 straddle @ $1.65 (~66 vol)
Buy the Jan 41 straddle for $5.00 (~48 vol)
Pay $3.25.

2. Do a calendar strangle:
Sell the Dec 40/42 strangle @ $0.85 (~67 vol)
Buy the Jan 40/42.5 strangle for $3.85 (~48 vol).

3. Ok, here's a total 180:
Buy the Dec 41 straddle for $1.80. I mean, think about it, the stock moved ~$6 yesterday and $2.70 today... Sheesh, $1.80 feels cheap, no?

4. Continuing the contrarian play:
Do #3 and sell the Dec 39/43 strangle @ $0.45 to reduce the net debit to $1.35.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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AIG - Vol and Stock Move Re-visited

AIG is trading $51.75, down small with IV30™ up 1.4%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



I wrote about AIG on 12-9-2010, in particular, with the stock moving I felt the vol was kinda low. You can read that post below:
AIG - Vol Explodes on Bailout Ownership Changes

We looked at three possible trades to analyze:
1. I'm not usually a premium buyer, but the Dec 46 straddle is priced at
~$2.45 fair value and the stock has moved $4.00 today alone. I dunno, feels like that straddle is kind of cheap.
Buy the Dec 46 straddle for $2.50.

2. Take a little of that premium off with an upside skew sale.
Trade #1 +
Sell the Dec 50 call @ $0.40. This reduces the net debit to $2.10.

3. Trade #2 and sell a put, like the Dec 43. But, I dunno if a $0.20 sale is worth it.

Anyway, they all won simply because the stock moved $6 (or whatever). Let's look at the Skew Tab today (below).



So we see that the front month (i.e. the front 3 days) are very elevated (as usual) compared to the back month. There is a fairly substantial upward bend to the skew to the upside. I've highlighted the 55 strike vol difference (38 points).

Let's look to the Charts Tab (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see that wild move up from ~$42 to now ~$52 in the last week or so. We can also see that the IV30™ (short-term implied vol) is below the HV20™ (short-term realized vol) and the HV180™ (long-term realized vol). Specifically:

IV30™: 46.97
HV20™: 55.91
HV180™: 50.00

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab.



The question now, is the AIG vol still too low? The Jan ATM straddle is priced at ~ 47 vol, so it's come up ~7% from the Dec ATM straddle in the last post. This feels like one of those trades that will keep working, until it doesn't, with the "doesn't" turning into a painful loser. Let's look at some trades, but keep a close mind on the fact that the IV30™ only looks low because the HV20™ has catapulted up on the AIG stock move of late.

Possible Trades to Analyze
1. Buy the Jan 50 straddle for $6.30 and hope AIG moves a lot. This trade might be a winner intra-month with some stock moves rather than a trade to hold to expo. This would be an "active" trade, not a "sit and watch" trade.

2. Do #1, but sell that upside skew in Dec for a three day scalp.
Sell the Dec 55 call @ $0.36 (85 vol). Note that if AIG rips passed 55, this is a loser.

3. For you risk lovers:
The upside is super bid because of the recent stock move, Do #2 but sell 2 of the Dec 55 calls.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Legal Stuff:
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Valassis Communications (VCI) - Vol & Stock Pop on Upcoming News

VCI is trading $35.56, up 2.5% with IV30™ up 5.6%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



I noticed the stock because of it's vol and stock jump at ~3pm EST. The Tick Chart is included below. The top is the stock price, the bottom is the Dec vol.



I've circled the pop. Here's the news:
-----------------------------
12:04PM Valassis surging after announcing it will issue guidance tomorrow Dec 15: Co announced today that it will host a conference call Dec. 15, 2010, at 11am ET to discuss its 2011 guidance. Valassis' 2011 guidance press release will be published before the market opens on Dec. 15.
Source: Yahoo! Finance
-----------------------------

So, with earnings coming out, the vol popped - makes sense. But why did the stock pop? Hmm... Would a company surprise with an earnings announcement if it was bad news? I think the market has decided, no, it wouldn't. That means not only are earnings coming out, but now expectations are embedded in the options. Let's look to the skew tab to see what the Options market is reflecting.



Check out the upside skew in Dec (but not in Jan). Hmm...again...  Let's look at the Charts Tab and peak at the current vol level.



Specifically:

IV30™: 35.56
HV20™: 27.10
HV180™: 44.55
Jan IV: 40.29
Dec IV: 80.12

Possible Trades to Analyze
A standard calendar spread isn't really much fun here because it's just selling the earnings vol. Let's look at some slightly creative stuff:

1. Given the upside skew that has developed in the Dec OTM calls:
Buy the Dec/Jan 37.5 call spread (sell Dec/ buy Jan) for $0.85. This purchases ~40 vol and sells ~75 vol but it also has a positive delta. Ideally, VCI pops to $37.5 at expo for this trade.

2. The upside skew also brings about an interesting call spread within Dec:
Buy the Dec 37.5/40 call spread for $0.30. This purchases ~87 vol and sells ~ 105 vol. It's a $2.50 call spread for just $0.30, but... It's a bullish bet on essentially a one day move. The MaxGain:MaxLoss payout is 7.33:1, but the odds of winning are certainly less than 50%. The question is if the bad odds are overcome with a superior payout.

3. Feeling contrarian? Sell that upside in Dec naked. Risky...

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Tesoro (TSO) - Elevated Vol and Expo

TSO is trading $16.94, down 1.0% with IV30™ up 1.0%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.



The stock just came up on a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for calendar spreads between the front two months.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price >= $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 >= 8
Average Option Volume >= 1,000
Industry != Bio-tech
Days After Earnings >=5 <=70
Sigma1, Sigma2 >= 1

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Pro™.



The goal with this scan is to identify back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 8 vol points. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated front month vol simply because earnings are approaching.

Looking to the Skew Tab (below), we can see the elevated vol in the front month (red line) relative to the second month (yellow line).



We can see how the front month is elevated to the back (which is normal this close to expo). There's also a parabolic bend up (upside and downside) in Dec.

Now we can turn to the Charts Tab (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see IV30™ has risen passed HV20™ and HV180™, so it is elevated a touch. The stock has risen nicely of late, though in the last week has done a little turn down.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Potential Trades to Analyze
1. Start Simple:
Sell the Dec 17 straddle @ $0.69 (~54 vol).
Buy the Jan 17.5 straddle for $1.81 (~40 vol).
Net debit is $1.12. Note the offset strikes - that creates a delta to this position.

2. More complex:
Do #1, sell the Jan 15 put @ $0.21 (~42 vol). This reduces the debit to $0.91, but is naked both sides if the stock moves size in the next 3.5 days.

3. For you risk lovers:
Do #2 and sell the Dec 16/18 strangle @ $0.14 (~59 vol). This reduces the debit to $0.77. If TSO sticks around here to expo, this can probably be closed for a winner on Friday close.

Note: TSO is an independent petroleum refiner, so one day surprise moves are a real possibility. Getting overly short the $0.10 options in this one doesn't feel like a smart play. Also, the Jan options are pretty expensive. This one may be a pass overall unless you have some strong convictions.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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