Monday, December 1, 2014

12-1-14: Volatility Charts of the Day


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Do This Yourself In Sixty Seconds



OIH


Provided by Livevol

AGQ


Provided by Livevol


This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






Legal Stuff:
Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

* TASER (TASR) - This is What Explosive Growth and Efficiency Looks Like (5 Charts)


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TASR closed trading at $27.09, up 2.8% with IV30™ up 7.5%. The Symbol Summary is included below.

Provided by Livevol

Conclusion
TASR stock is up 170% over the last two-years as total revenue, revenue per employee, gross margin % and net income have grown, even as investment in research & development has increased.

Relative to its peers, TASR's net income two-year growth is the largest (by far).  Let's examine the financial measures in the recent past and then look at near-term risk pricing by the option market.

Net Income, 2-Year CAGR % vs Total Revenue, 2-Year CAGR %
When plotting the two-year rowing earnings on the y-axis, and revenue on the x-axis, we can see how quickly TASR is growing it's net income relative to peers.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories

The two year stock return chart, is included below.
Provided by Livevol

The stock is up ~170% in the last two-years and ~35% in the last year.  Let's turn back to the visualizations.


Revenue (TTM)
Check out that trend in revenue growth since 2011 -- it's abrupt and consistent, with the firm nearly doubling sales.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories





Revenue per Employee
This is a fascinating trend since 2011; not only has revenue doubled, but in that same time period, revenue per employee has increased ~40%.  That's quite a trick -- growth fast and improve efficiency at the same time.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories


Revenue (TTM) vs. Gross Margin %
Again, since 2011, not only has revenue doubled, but incredibly, gross margin % has also risen by nearly 30%.  This is another easy visual with the same conclusion: TASR is growing and in that growth is also turning greater efficiencies.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories






Revenue (TTM) vs. Net Income (TTM)
If we look from 2012 forward, we can see that the revenue explosion, along with improving gross margin % and greater revenue per employee has had the tautological result: earnings are booming and have hit all-time highs.  One thong to note -- earnings are still a very small number (~$20M), don't lose the forest for the trees.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories




Revenue (TTM) vs. Research & Development (TTM)
This is the last visual, but one of my favorites.  We can see that as R&D spending has increased over the last two-years, net income (earnings) has continued to increase.  TASR does not appear to be suffocating the business in the short-term for profits at the expense of later product development.

Provided by Capital Market Laboratories






Finally, the Options Tab is included below.

Provided by Livevol

Using the at-the-money (ATM) straddle we can see that the option market reflects a price range of [$20, $24]


  • If you believe the stock will be outside that range on expiry or any date before then, then you think the volatility is too low.
  • If you believe that range is too wide, and that the stock will definitively be in that range on expiration, then you think volatility is too high.
  • If you're not sure, and can make an argument for either case, then you think volatility is priced just about right.



This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






Legal Stuff:
Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

12-1-14: End of Day Report

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Provided by BarChart.com





Top Headlines
Stocks slip after retail sales weaken, China slows

This is why Apple shares sank earlier: Pros

Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: Alcoa, CONSOL Energy, Deere, DreamWorks, Groupon, Seadrill, Yahoo and More

Open Interest and Option Volume Report
Daily Open Interest & Option Volume Report

Covered Call & Call Spread Report
Daily Covered Call & Call Spread Report

Biotech Index
Daily Biotech Small & Micro Cap Update

Market Overview

Largest Stock Gainers


Largest Stock Losers


New 52 Wk Highs in S&P 500


New 52 Wk Lows in S&P 500


Unusual Option Volume


This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






Legal Stuff:
Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

12-1-14: Daily Biotech Small & Micro Cap Update

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The Ophir Gottlieb Small Cap Biotech Index
Is this the biotech revolution or the biotech bust?





Notable Stock Movers
AEZS+23.08%
MNOV+19.34%
IMUC+18.83%
MRNA-12%
ACUR-13.49%
POZN-14.17%


Unusually Heavy Option Volume
POZN:1452% of daily average
MNTA:1202% of daily average
RGEN:1198% of daily average

231 small / micro cap biotech and pharma companies (equal weighted):
  • Public Biotech and Pharma Companies
  • Trade on North American Exchanges
  • Market Cap Range: [$0, $2 Billion]
  • Price, Employees, Revenue Range: Any

More on index construction and performance: The Ophir Gottlieb Small Cap Biotech Index

Today's Biotech Index Stock Movers



Today's Biotech Index Unusual Option Volume




This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






Legal Stuff:
Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

12-1-14: Daily Open Interest & Option Volume Report

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Daily Open Interest & Option Volume Report





Largest Current Open Interest Relative to 90-day Average




Unusual Option Volume




This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.






Legal Stuff:
Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

12-1-14: Daily Covered Call & Call Spread Report

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Covered Call Requirements
  • Time Frame Between 60-180 days
  • HV30 > 15%
  • Stock Price > 10
  • Stock Price < 100
  • Option Bid > 0.25






Call Spread Requirements
  • Time Frame < 60 Days
  • HV30 > 30%
  • Stock Price > 10
  • Stock Price < 100
  • Spread Ask < 0.75





This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

 

Legal Stuff: Options involve risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade options, and must meet suitability requirements.

The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. I am not engaged in rendering any legal or professional services by placing these general informational materials on this website.

I specifically disclaim any liability, whether based in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of or in any way connected with access to or use of the site, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages, including liability in connection with mistakes or omissions in, or delays in transmission of, information to or from the user, interruptions in telecommunications connections to the site or viruses.

I make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained on this website. Any links provided to other server sites are offered as a matter of convenience and in no way are meant to imply that I endorse, sponsor, promote or am affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorse any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Thank You (2014)

And so on this day of Thanks, I pay it forward to you for making my life wonderful.

1,167,895 readers in five years on the blog. To each and everyone since my debut --
I humbly declare, that I write not for me, but for you.

So the sun rises once more --
With scattered strength and shattered roar.

Lightly punishing blows --
And humility in groves.

Leave sounds of pounding piano opening the hidden door.

Another day of cannot and will not to follow --
Another day of unimaginable pain to swallow.

Pouring rain and whet appetites fall --
Satisfied in whole, empty in all.

Let us feel that which we cannot touch
     Let us touch that which we cannot see;
     Let us see that which we cannot hear.
And let us hear the music as such.

Let us walk in the wonder and find quiet on the other side;
     Let us shake with fury; let us tremble in love;
And let us conquer the great divide.

Let us raise our hands to the sky --
Let us give everything and defy.

Let us not see anyone else so that we may touch the rest --
Let us walk over the step and pass this test.

Let us walk in Marc’s blue suede shoes --
Let us walk in the land of the Delta Blues.

Let Reverend Green welcome our badly worn hand --
Let fury and rage fall quiet in this our last stand.

Let us rise without fear and pain --
Let us lift all else in this passion’s reign.

Let us believe; not one time nor the second --
Let us believe not for want but to reckon.

Let us always find the strength to move --
Let us not search for answers to life prove.

Let us fly higher than death --
Let us fight with every last breath.

Let us make today one --
and nine hundred ninety nine thousand nine hundred and ninety nine will be done.

Let us win; and let us never forget that it is inside of us, because we are inside of it.

So the sun rises once more; with scattered strength and shattered roar.
     Lightly punishing blows and humility in groves;
Leave sounds of pounding piano opening the hidden door.

Thank you.