Monday, February 13, 2012

KB Home (KBH) - Vol Drops as Stock Explodes; Isn't Upside Risk Too?

KBH is trading $12.35, up 5.5% with IV30™ down 1.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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KB Home is a homebuilding company. The Company constructs and sells homes through its operating divisions under the name KB Home.

This is another vol note, but more holistic than the strike-by-strike view. There's an interesting phenomenon that can occur as vol dips in an abruptly rising stock. We can find depressed vol relative to the historical measures as the market reflects "lower risk" in an up trending stock. But, if you own gamma and the stock moves up more than the implied priced, well, you get the point... Down isn't the only direction that wins when owning gamma.

The Charts Tab (six months) for KBH is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



First, let's look to the stock portion on the top. I've highlighted the recent big move up. How big?... On 12-28-2011 the stock closed at $6.34. That's a 94.8% rise in about six weeks. On the vol side, check out how the HV20™ has been rising of late as the stock price has been moving up. But, as the actual realized volatility of the underlying has been rising, the implied has risen less. With the implied already trading below the historical measures before that gap has now opened up further. In English, the option market reflects lower risk as the realized vol has risen. Lest we forget, upward stock movement is volatility too. The vol comps are included below:

IV30™: 61.89%
HV20™: 75.44%
HV180™: 73.21%

Let's turn to the Skew Tab.



We can see similar shapes for all three of the front expiries and the front is elevated to the back monotonically for the all three.

Finally, let's turn to the options tab, for completeness.



The months are priced to 65.88%, 61.89% and 60.92%, respectively for Feb, Mar and Apr. The next earnings release is projected somewhere near the middle of Mar -- which straddles two expiries. Depressed vol in a rising stock and an earnings event is in interesting proposition.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Shaw Group (SHAW) - "Fair" Implied and Front to Back Calendar

SHAW is trading $29.47, down 2.8% with IV30™ up 2.5%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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The Shaw Group Inc. (Shaw) is a provider of technology, engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance, fabrication, manufacturing, consulting, remediation and facilities management services to a diverse client base that includes multinational and national oil companies and industrial corporations, regulated utilities, independent and merchant power producers, and government agencies.

This is a vol note -- implied looks to be priced "fair" but it's the month-to-month vols that are interesting. Having said that, let's start with the Charts Tab (six months) to see the overall vol comps, first. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the recent pop off of earnings. The stock rose from $22.66 to $26.30 or 16.1%. Looking to the vols we can see that the implied is priced right in between the short-term and long-term historical realized vol measures. The specifics for the vols comps are included below:

IV30™: 41.24%
HV20™: 32.38%
HV180™: 46.14%

Let's turn to the Skew Tab, which is where the real action is.



We can see the front is elevated quite substantially to the back. That upside skew is just a couple of nickel bids, but the 28 puts are still $0.15 bid.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.



Across the top we can see that Feb is priced to 49.13% where Mar is priced to 41.24%. Neither expiry has an earnings event (probably). Look to Apr for that event which is priced to 41.94%, also depressed to Feb.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Friday, February 10, 2012

Why The JPM Cover Letter Was Exactly What They Wanted; And Why You're Wrong if You Disagree

For those that don't know, a cover letter sent to J.P. Morgan for an internship has gone viral. Yeah, a "cover letter"... like the preview to a resume "cover letter." Just to catch you up if somehow you've missed reading the headline, ya know, everywhere -- here it is in all of its glory:

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1/23/2012

J.P. Morgan

Dear Sir or Madame:

I am an ambitious undergraduate at NYU triple majoring in Mathematics, Economics, and Computer Science. I am a punctual, personable, and shrewd individual, yet I have a quality which I pride myself on more than any of these.

I am unequivocally the most unflaggingly hard worker I know, and I love self-improvement. I have always felt that my time should be spent wisely, so I continuously challenge myself; I left Villanova because the work was too easy. Once I realized I could achieve a perfect GPA while holding a part-time job at NYU, I decided to redouble my effort by placing out of two classes, taking two honors classes, and holding two part-time jobs. That semester I achieved a 3.93, and in the same time I managed to bench double my bodyweight and do 35 pull-ups.

I say these things only because solid evidence is more convincing than unverifiable statements, and I want to demonstrate that I am a hard worker. J.P. Morgan is a firm with a reputation that precedes itself and employees who represent only the best and rightest in finance. I know that the employees in this firm will push me to excellence, especially within the Investment Banking division. In fact, one of the supporting reasons I chose Investment Banking over any other division was that I know it is difficult. I hope to augment my character by diligently working for the professionals at Morgan Stanley, and I feel I have much to offer in return.

I am proficient in several programming languages, and I can pick up a new one very quickly. For instance, I learned a years worth of Java from NYU in 27 days on my own; this is how I placed out of two including: Money and Banking, Analysis, Game Theory, Probability and Statistics. Even further, I am taking Machine Learning and Probabilistic Graphical Modeling currently, two programming courses offered by Stanford, so that I may truly offer the most if I am accepted. I am proficient with Bloomberg terminals, excellent with excel, and can perform basic office functions with terrifying efficiency. I have plenty of experience in the professional world through my internship at Merrill Lynch, and my research assistant position at NYU. In fact, my most recent employer has found me so useful that he promoted me to a Research Assistant and an official CTED intern. This role is usually reserved for Masters students, but my employer gave the title to me so that he could give me more work.

Please realize that I am not a braggart or conceited, I just want to outline my usefulness. Egos can be a huge liability, and I try not to have one.

Thank you so much for your time, and I look forward to hearing from you.

Best,

Mark

Source: The Internet
--

The commentary has been pretty harsh as the title of the Huffington Post (Awful Cover Letter To JPMorgan Becomes Laughing Stock Of Wall Street) article rightfully points out. It (and he) has become a laughing stock. Now I'm no apologist for finance or traders (yes, I was a market maker on the NYSE ARCA floor). In fact, you probably won't find a harsher critic. But if you think this letter is out of line, or inappropriate for its purpose; you're wrong... you're dead wrong. And here's why...

The big banks make money trading. They make a lot of money trading. And I don't mean "a lot of money" like normal reasonable people think. I don't mean a million dollars a year. I don't mean $10 million a year. I mean a lot of money like -- larger than the GDP of nations. Several nations. Combined.

So, when banks interview for open trader positions it's big business. This is an industry that produces nothing other than wealth. There is no quality control. There is no product differentiation. There is no version 2.0. The measure is money, and that's all.

For those of you not in finance, or not in trading, let me tell you what the banks don't want you to know. The interviews aren't just about intellect, skill sets and coding efficiency. They're about competitiveness and confidence to exhibit peak intellect under extreme circumstances.

There are special exams designed to measure each candidate's competitiveness and self confidence. The higher the score, the better the odds the candidate gets to trade their money. It's simple -- take highly intelligent over achievers, make them confident in their prowess and competitive with their peers, you get someone that helps make billions for his firm.

Think about this... You go to Harvard, MIT, Columbia, NYU, Berkeley, Chicago or Stanford (sup), bust your ass for four years (or more) and win the lottery. The lottery of getting an interview at JPM, Sachs or Morgan. You walk down Wall, find your way into the building, sign your name with a shaky hand and count the seconds until they call you in for your interview.

Some junior lets you in -- you greet them with a sweaty palm, probably a crack in your voice. But you did it. You made it. The big time. Your big shot. Finally, Mr. Swinging Dick calls you in. You walk into an office. He sits in a $25,000 chair behind his desk with a Wall St. Journal opened full, blocking his face from plain sight. What this man earns in a 6 1/2 hour trading day puts him in the top 1% of wage earners in the world; then multiply by that by 252 trading days a year.

You think for thirty seconds -- "should I sit down?" -- "should I say something?" -- "is this the right place?"

But in thirty seconds, you just lost your once in a lifetime. You see, as an interviewee, if you don't realize that you're supposed the tear the paper out of that man's hands within 30 seconds, then guess what, you don't have what it takes. Of course, that's in their eyes -- but they're the master's of that universe. And you're SOL if it takes you more than 29 seconds to realize that. You're not confident and you're not competitive -- not how they measure it.

So what do they want in a cover letter to offer you the privilege of that thirty second test? A good school? Brother, if it ain't from one of the top schools you don't even have a chance, so that imprimatur doesn't get you anywhere. No. They want someone that can stand up in a crowd of hollering men selling everything they can, in chaos, in a collapsing security, and make a market (a correct one) to buy until you hit your risk limits... and then buy some more.

You know what that takes? Confidence, intelligence and competitiveness. And... well, let's be honest, a screw or two loose as well.

Read that letter again. Do you see a confident man? Do you see a man that pushes his intellectual capacity beyond those surrounding him at a top tier university? Do you see someone that competes?

Yeah. Me too. (A screw loose too.. he he).

The funny thing is -- the joke isn't the cover letter.

The joke is, he did what he was told.

The joke is, he should have gotten the interview.

The joke is, he'd probably make a damn good trader.

The joke is... that letter, isn't a joke at all.

Don't blame him for the monster they've created.

All that said, a proof read was probably a good idea.

*** And yes, I know it was for I-Banking, not trading. Just sayin'...

Riverbed Technology (RVBD) - Vol Pops Off of Annual Low; Stock Gathers Momentum After Earnings Swoon

RVBD is trading $27.76, up small with IV30™ up 16.5%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Riverbed) has developed solutions to the fundamental problems associated with information technology (IT) performance across wide area networks (WANs).

This is a vol note along with order flow. On a day that the broader markets are down across the board, RVDB is up small, but with a significant pop in vol. Let's start with some order flow.

The company has traded 23,741 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 8,472. Calls have traded on an 8.3:1 ratio to puts. The action has been in the Mar 32, Feb 30 and Mar 30 calls. It's also interesting to note that retail order flow is opening long calls in this name: see the ISE Sentiment (the number of opening long calls and puts from retail accounts on ISE). The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates that the calls in Feb have traded smaller than existing OI while the Mar 32 calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). The Mar calls look like purchases for the most part (though there is some ambiguity). The Feb 30 calls are also ambiguous, although the largest trade looks like a sale of 587 @ $0.15.



The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



We can see that the Jun expiry has the highest vol for the ATM options. The Feb OTM options show that parabolic skew due to the "stickiness" of OTM option prices near expo.

Finally, the Charts Tab (six months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



This is a cool chart for a few reasons.

1. On the stock side, we can see the recent swoon that was earnings. RVBD gapped down 18.3% off of the report.

2. After closing at $23.81 on 1-30-2012, the stock has rallied back more than 16% to its current level.

3. On the day of earnings, RVBD IV30™ closed at 58.97%. Just a few days later the implied hit the annual low of 40.61%. The range in IV30™ for the year is [40.61%, 96.71%]. That puts the current IV30™ in the 14th percentile even after the spike, today.

It looks premium buyers are active today in this name and given the recent moves and the current vol levels, that kinda makes sense. It looks like retail order flow is a bit one-sided to deltas -- i.e. a bet on a stock move up.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Cobalt Int'l Energy (CIE) - Stock Pops on "Extraordinary Success", Vol Diff Opens to Earnings

CIE is trading $31.99, up 33.9% with IV30™ down 1.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Cobalt International Energy, Inc. is an independent, oil-focused exploration and production company with a salt prospect inventory in the deepwater of the United States Gulf of Mexico and offshore Angola and Gabon in West Africa.

This is a vol note on a stock that just released some very good news that has pushed the price up by more than 1/3. Here's the news:

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Cobalt International Energy Inc said results from tests at a deep sea oil well off the coast of Angola had exceeded expectations and had increased the company's confidence in its West African pre-salt exploration prospects.

[]

"Cameia is an extraordinary success. The results have exceeded our pre-drill expectations and have increased our confidence in our entire West Africa pre-salt exploration inventory," said Cobalt Chief Executive Joseph Bryant in a statement on Friday.

Source: Reuters via Yahoo1 Finance, Cobalt Intl: Angola oil test beats expectations
---

That's pretty good news... Before we look to the Charts Tab, I want to point some stuff out in the Skew.



There's a beautiful monotonic spread with increasing vol from the back to the front across the three expiries pictured. Or, in English, Feb vol is higher than Mar which is higher than Apr. The spread between Mar and Apr is likely due to the next earnings report (due out in late Feb or early Mar but outside Feb expiry). The spread between Feb and Mar (and Apr) is due to the gap up today. Just looking at the first three hours, the range in CIE is [$30.25, $36.51] with an opening print basically in the middle ($33.98). So the gamma in Feb is pricey and likely should be.

Let's turn to the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



What's absolutely fascinating (OK, maybe that's a bit too far) is the stock price rise in the last two months. Specifically, on 12-14-2011 the stock closed at $8.80 -- that's 72.5% in less than two months. On the vol side, even with this news, the IV30™ is down. That might be interpreted as this news was a surprise -- not the results one way or the other, just that news was coming at all. I say that because the vol was not elevated into this event and did not drop after the news. Weird given what the news actually was...

Let's turn to the Options Tab.



It's that vol diff between the front and the Mar (earnings) expiry that has me interested. Feb is priced to 99.18% vol with Mar priced to 84.46%. Granted, the gamma in Feb should be expensive (see prior discussion of the day's range).

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Thursday, February 9, 2012

Expedia (EXPE) - Earnings Today; Order Flow Bets on a Move -- Possibly Bullish

EXPE is trading $33.89, up 0.7% with IV30™ up 19.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Expedia, Inc. is an online travel company. The Company makes available, on a stand-alone and package basis, travel products and services provided by numerous airlines, lodging properties, car rental companies, destination service providers, cruise lines and other travel product and service companies.

The company has earnings due out today, AMC. This is an order flow note ahead of that call. The company has traded over 29,000 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 2,613. Calls have traded on a 1.9:1 ratio to puts. The action has been in the Feb 35 calls where over 12,800 have traded. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates that the Feb 35 calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). The flow looks like mostly buyers, but there is a touch of ambiguity for sure. On a side note, look at the Feb 38 calls -- over 2,00 have traded and they all look like purchases. It is important to recognize that stock has already surpassed the daily average, so a bunch of these options might be going up tied to stock (so the delta is potentially muted or reversed... maybe).



The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



We can see the front is elevated to the back -- but that's normal and expected. The Feb options essentially represent the volatility of the earnings reaction as they expire in less than seven trading days.

Finally, the Charts Tab (six months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, we can see the upward price evolution of late -- EXPE was in the high 20's a month ago and is now up more than 18% from those levels. It is a bit weird that the vol has reacted so abruptly today. Usually there's an orderly upward trend as earnings approach, but instead we see a ~20% pop right in front of the news.

It'll be interesting to see the results as the order flow reflects premium buyers (bets that the stock will move) and it feels like bullish order flow -- at least in part.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Diamond Foods (DMND) - The Full Story and What the Options Market Reflects

DMND is trading $22.92, down 37.5% with IV30™ down 23.0% as of ~10am EST. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Diamond Foods, Inc. engages in processing, marketing, and distributing snack products. It provides snack products, including roasted, glazed and flavored nuts, trail mixes, dried fruit, seeds, microwave popcorn products, and potato and tortilla chips under the Emerald, Pop Secret, and Kettle brands.

This stock / company has been a regular disaster with claims and apparent realities surrounding falsified accounting. On 9-21-2011 this stock closed at $91.91… it’s down more than 75% in less than five months. Let’s start with the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™- blue vs HV180™- pink).



Lots of circles ‘n stuff ‘n stuff. Here’s a recap of the news on the rather abrupt stock move days:

9-16-2011: Stock closed up $9.07 or 11.6% to $87.30 on an earnings report.

11-2-2011: Stock closed down $11.33 or -17.7% to $52.79. Here’s a news snippet which was ever so portending.

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What: Shares of nut and snack slinger Diamond Foods were getting boiled like peanuts today, falling as much as 24% on reports that Diamond's board is investigating some accounting procedures.

So what: While the day has been long on losses for Diamond shareholders, it's been short on details. The terse statement from Diamond simply said that the board launched an investigation after the chairman of the audit committee received "an external communication regarding Diamond's accounting for certain crop payments to walnut growers."

That's not much to go on, but the matter is serious enough that it's delaying the closing of Diamond's acquisition of Procter & Gamble's (NYSE: PG ) Pringles unit. That deal is now expected to close in the first half of next year.

Source: The Motley Fool via Yahoo! Finance: Diamond Foods Shares Plunged: What You Need to Know, written by Matt Koppenheffer
---

11-23-2011: Stock closed down $7.17 or -20.5% to $27.80 on news that a board member killed himself. There were questions as to whether the death had anything to do with the ongoing probe. I found this snippet from Barron’s: Diamond Foods: Tragedy Sends Shares Tumbling

12-9-2011: The stock closed up $14.01 or 52.8% to $40.56 on news from a KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. analyst said "a probe into payments to walnut growers will wrap up quickly and not jeopardize the acquisition of Pringles from Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)." Source: Bloomberg via Yahoo! Finance -- Diamond Soars After Report Says Probe Won’t Derail P&G Deal, written by Matthew Boyle.

12-12-2011: Stock closed down $9.26 or -22.8% to $31.30 on this news from the AP:

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Shares of Diamond Foods Inc. slid more than 10 percent in premarket trading Friday after a published report of a federal inquiry into whether the snack maker's financial practices involved criminal fraud.

On top of that, two large stockholders recently sold most of their shares.

At issue is Diamond Foods' accounting for crop payments to walnut growers.

Source: AP via Yahoo1 Finance -- Ahead of the Bell: Diamond Foods
---

Note that the 12-12-2011 news was the next trading day after the 52.8% pop on 12-9-2012.

And finally...

2-9-2012: Stock is down 37.5% on this news:

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(Reuters) - Diamond Foods Inc (DMND.O) plunged 40 percent in premarket trading after the company removed its top management and said it would restate results due to improper accounting of payments to walnut growers, prompting at least one brokerage to downgrade its stock.

Analysts said Diamond's proposed buy of Pringles from Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N) would not go through, and that the company would likely default on its debt covenants.

"Diamond's restatements will cause debt covenant default and ultimately raise interest expense," Janney Capital Markets analyst Mitchell Pinheiro said in a note, adding that the Pringles merger was "finished."

"This is the worst case scenario, not only creating uncertainty around the financial statements and removing a senior management team that directed the solid growth of the past few years, but also likely rendering dead the pending Pringles deal," Chappell said in a note.

Source: Reuters via Yahoo! Finance -- Diamond Foods plunges after probe finds improper accounting, written by Mihir Dalal
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What’s interesting with all that, looking back to the Charts Tab waaaay up there, is that this time the news is “bad” wrt stock price, but the vol is imploding. The trend had been an up tick pushed vol down and the down ticks pushed vol up – not this time. This, in my opinion, is a reflection from the option market that the worst news is out. This is the catastrophe, the worst case scenario, the… end of the bad news. Well, not quite that far – the implied is still elevated to the long-term historical realized vol which is at 87.30%. But, keep in mind that HV is calculated close-to-close so HV180™ (and HV20™) will rise tomorrow.

Let’s turn to the Skew Tab.



We can see the Feb10 weeklies are elevated to the Feb monthlies which are, in turn, elevated to the Mar monthlies. This is pretty normal behavior as the stability of the underlying price is certainly in flux as of the news today. I do note a slight upside skew in the Feb expiries which reflect the risk (potential) of a stock rebound in the near-term.

Finally, let’s turn to the Options Tab.



I wrote about this one for TheStreet (OptionsProfits), so no specific trade analysis here. But, we can see the vols are priced to 130.34%, 106.57% and 89.84% for the Feb(W), Feb monthly and Mar monthly expiries, respectively.

I’m not a huge believer in "the risk is depressed" argument given the disclosures. I have no idea if the impropriety will have (or has had) a substantial effect on actual cash flow and earnings, or if it’s more of a personal problem for a few folks that may get in trouble, but otherwise had little impact on the firm as a going concern. For all we know, this firm is actually worth $90 / share. Or, it’s worth nothing and is in fact a mirage (doubtful).

On a side note, in another life, I was the director of research for a quant fraud modeling firm (Audit Integrity) and I can tell you that the empirical data points to often times disastrous implications to a firm that uncovers what "seems" like isolated fraud. An environment of fraud is often not isolated.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Carbo Ceramics (CRR) - Calendar Spread Opens in Dropping Stock

CRR is trading $90.40, down 5.7% with IV30™ up 4.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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The stock just came up on a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for calendar spreads between the front two months.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 GTE 8
Average Option Volume GTE 1,000
Industry isNot Bio-tech
Days After Earnings GTE 5 LTE 70
Sigma1, Sigma2 GTE 1

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol® Pro.



The goal with this scan is to identify back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 8 vol points. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated front month vol simply because earnings are approaching.

The news I see for CRR is a lawsuit -- but other than that, nothing really. Here's a quick snippet covering the legal news:

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Holzer Holzer & Fistel, LLC is investigating potential violations of the federal securities laws by Carbo Ceramics Inc. (“Carbo Ceramics” or the “Company”) (NYSE: CRR - News). The investigation focuses on whether a series of statements made between October 27, 2011 and January 26, 2012, inclusive, regarding Carbo Ceramics’ business, its prospects and its operations were materially false and misleading at the time they were made. Specifically, the investigation seeks to determine, among other things, whether Carbo Ceramics knew but failed to timely disclose that it was experiencing a decline in proppant sales in the Haynesville region.

Source: BusniessWire via Yahoo! Finance -- Holzer Holzer & Fistel, LLC Announces Investigation into Carbo Ceramics Inc.
---

That lawsuit news makes it seem like the company just released some poor sales figures and the stock reaction kinda echoes that hypothesis -- call it confirming circumstantial evidence. Let's turn to the Skew Tab.



We can see the front three months show a monotonic increase in vol from back to front. Even more pronounced is the upside skew difference -- the Feb options show higher vol by strike as we move to further OTM calls (higher strikes), which is the opposite of "normal" skew. To read about normal skew and why it exists, you can read this post: Understanding Option Skew -- What it is and Why it Exists

Now we can turn to the Charts Tab (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



The stock gap down of late is pretty impressive. It started with the earnings report and has continued into today. On 1-25-2012 the stock was trading $131.03. As of today (about two weeks later), the stock is down 31%. It is a bit of quandary as to why the vol continues to stay relatively tame. The 52 wk range in IV30™ is [32.62%, 85.93%], so the current level is the 52nd percentile (annual). That's very middle of the road and still below the long-term historical realized vol... The current comps are:

IV30™: 60.17%
HV20™: 93.07%
HV180™: 67.39%

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



We can see Feb vol is priced to 69.27% with Mar priced to 59.34%. The next earnings report for CRR should be in late Apr -- possibly after the Apr expiry cycle.  The elevated front makes sense given how much this stock seems to move with no real end in sight for the downward trend.  The question is, why is the back still priced below the historical realized vol?  The option market reflects lessened risk moving forward.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Computer Sciences (CSC) - Stock Pops on Earnings, Front Month Vol Stays Elevated to Back

CSC is trading $31.24, up 18.0% with IV30™ down 19.4% as of ~11:30am EST. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) is engaged in the information technology (IT) and professional services industry. CSC offers an array of services to clients in the commercial and government markets and specializes in applying contemporary practices towards the employment of IT in order to achieve the strategic objectives of its customers.

The company is up today on an earnings report. Here’s a snippet that summarizes the results:

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Shares of government IT contractor Computer Sciences Corp. are trading sharply higher Wednesday following the company’s financial report for the fiscal third quarter ended December 30, which featured much higher profits than the Street had expected on a non-GAAP basis.

For the quarter, the company reported revenue of $3.76 billion, including a $204 million “reduction” relating to the company’s U.K. National Health Services contract. Excluding that item, revenue was $3.97 billion, down 0.7% from a year ago, and about in line with the Street at $3.98 billion.

Profits in the quarter on a non-GAAP basis was $1.35 a share, dramatically above the Street consensus at 58 cents. On a GAAP basis the company lost $8.97 a share due to several impairment charges.

The company signed up $4.1 billion in new contracts in the quarter; year-to-date new contracts total $13 billion, up 26% from the same period last year.

Source: Forbes via Yahoo! Finance -- Computer Sciences Shares Soar After Big FY Q3 EPS Beat, written by Eric Savitz.
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A while ago CSC was actually in the news because of an overwhelming bearish sentiment – from some of the big boys (Goldie included, I believe). In any case, it ain’t down today. Let’s turn to the Charts Tab (six months), below.  The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™- blue vs HV180™- pink).



We can see on the last earnings report (look for that blue “E” icon) the stock gapped down from $32.97 to $25.24 two days after earnings. Today, the stock has climbed most of the way back. On the vol side we can see how elevated the implied had gotten when the bears were out roaring, though the stock kinda hung in there. Today the IV30™ has dipped substantially off of the earnings report – which is expected behavior.

This becomes interesting when looking at the Skew Tab.



While all three of the front expiries show similar shapes, we can see that the front is still substantially elevated to the back. This is very similar to the skew of CSTR just yesterday off of a big move up after earnings. You can read that post here: Coinstar (CSTR) - Stock Explodes, Vol Implodes Off of Earnings -- Now What?

Finally, let’s look to the Options Tab, for completeness.



I wrote about this one for TheStreet (OptionsProfits), so no specific trade analysis here. But, we can see that Feb is still priced to 62.90% while Mar and Jun are priced to 49.94% and 42.70%, respectively. Further, we can see that Feb 30 puts are priced to half the value of the Mar 30 puts, though Feb has 1.5 weeks left, and Mar has, ya know, a lot more than that.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Pandora Media (P) - Vol Hits New Low as Earnings Approach

P is trading $14.47, down small with IV30™ down 8.6%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Pandora Media, Inc. (Pandora) is an Internet radio in the United States. As of January 31, 2011, it had over 80 million registered users. The Music Genome Project and its playlist generating algorithms enable it to deliver personalized radio to its listeners.

This is a vol note on a stock that has seen a massive upturn of late in stock price and with earnings approaching. Let's start with the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



In the stock portion we can see the rather abrupt rise from $9.79 (12-21-2011) to now $14.47, or up 47.8% in six weeks. The implied has taken the same train, but in reverse. On 11-21-2011 the IV30™ was 132.16% (the annual high). Today IV30™ has actually breached a new annual low (and now is just barely above) at 59.01%. That's a 55.3% drop in less than three months. The current level is essentially in the 0th percentile (an annual low). It's interesting to note that the next earnings cycle for P is right after Feb expo but in the Mar expiry. Weird given how low vol is...

Let's turn to the Skew Tab.



We can see that the Feb expiry shows the lowest vol ATM out of the front three. But, the downside skew in Feb is the most pronounced. That's actually kinda normal, but, given the new annual low in vol and the earnings date approaching in the Mar expo, it wouldn't have been crazy weird if the downside skew in Mar was actually elevated to Feb.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab, below.



Feb is priced to 55.44% vol and Mar to 59.43%. Just looking to the ATM straddle in Mar, we can see it's $2.05 x $2.35 while Feb is priced to $1.05 x $1.30.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Follow Live Trades and Order Flow on Twitter: @Livevol_Pro

Legal Stuff:
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