tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post5639799369631411273..comments2024-01-23T14:04:29.555-08:00Comments on Risk Laboratory: Ophir Gottlieb: Best Buy (BBY) - Option Market: Huge Risk in Next 4 DaysOphir Gottliebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14504557662647338626noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-51602620483562199122014-01-16T11:44:26.434-08:002014-01-16T11:44:26.434-08:00Oh der Gawd, Ophir, you caught my attention with t...Oh der Gawd, Ophir, you caught my attention with this on Monday afternoon, after making a nice $2k profit on $YELP's monday tumble. <br />i looked at your option tables and tried to study them to figure out what the "RISK" was. I incorrectly guessed that the option traders were selling Jan 18 $38 calls based on what i thought was a very large volume. so i sold 10 calls in my virtual trading acct to see what would happen. But i was not experienced with selling calls (which is why i did v trading), i had more experience buying puts in anticipation of the market going down. so i also put 10 puts at $37 in my vtrad acct. wednesday, no big movements, so i didn't pay attention thursday am, until 11:30 i casually logged into my account and saw my PUTS had made me over $8,000 ! i was so excited, then so depressed bcuz it was only virtual. but anyway, now i will carefully read your blog more, and continue to learn more about options. if i was diligent, i would have also come back here and read the comment by anon on jan 14 as 12:32 pm, and i would have known what was coming, and i would have REALLY bought some puts. oh well i will learn!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-69058225815018240792014-01-14T12:37:51.915-08:002014-01-14T12:37:51.915-08:00It feels like we should be bearish given all the r...It feels like we should be bearish given all the retail news, but then again, hat news is known, so the expectations are lowered.. no a "not so god number" could be seen as very good. This is a coin flip in my opinion, not bc of the numbers, b/c the reaction to those numbers.Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-65792955069892207442014-01-14T12:32:51.407-08:002014-01-14T12:32:51.407-08:00Holiday "revenue" number came out on the...Holiday "revenue" number came out on the 11th flat (12.8b vs 12.9b last year). In that case if the revenue were flat, with all the discounts hurting the margin I feel bby will see a drop similar to SHLD and GME when it releases the sales numbers on Thursday. But then it is BBY so you will never know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-44130903475002770762014-01-14T12:24:56.317-08:002014-01-14T12:24:56.317-08:00yup. It had to be a sales figure., no surprise the...yup. It had to be a sales figure., no surprise there. AS I wrote: <br />"Without looking up a single news search, I can tell you that the option market reflects a high likelihood of news/announcement/something before the end of trading this Friday."Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-49384546638295028732014-01-14T11:47:32.851-08:002014-01-14T11:47:32.851-08:00For your information holiday sales numbers comes o...For your information holiday sales numbers comes out on Thursday not sure how you can not know that from their website up coming event...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-32441890727154418262014-01-14T09:34:03.812-08:002014-01-14T09:34:03.812-08:00Thanks for the note bosco. I'm about to put ...Thanks for the note bosco. I'm about to put a position on too, trying to find the strikes I like.Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1520302325239963360.post-32468591272685623942014-01-13T16:06:26.998-08:002014-01-13T16:06:26.998-08:00It looks like earnings aren't until late Febru...It looks like earnings aren't until late February...any indication what is being priced in? A preannouncement? Was thinking about a short 1x ATM Jan straddle long 2x OTM Feb strangle for small debit, thanks for pointing out. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16379970456370858752noreply@blogger.com